OG Anunoby Finals MVP Surge: From Plus-4500 to Plus-280 in One Night

OG Anunoby was plus-4500 to win 2026 NBA Finals MVP before tip-off Tuesday night, scored 33 points on 10-of-15 shooting (seven of nine from three), blocked De'Aaron Fox at the rim, and tipped in Jalen Brunson's miss with 1.2 seconds left to seal a 107-106 Knicks win and a 3-1 series lead. He woke up Wednesday at plus-280 on DraftKings. Brunson is still the favorite at minus-135 after his 36-point, 7-assist Game 4, but the Anunoby move is the largest single-game odds shift on the Finals MVP board since Andre Iguodala in 2015.

What Actually Happened in Game 4

The Knicks came back from 29 points down with 9:33 remaining. ESPN Analytics put New York's win probability at 0.4% at the inflection point. That is the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. The previous record was 25, by Cleveland in 2016 Game 5.

Anunoby was the closer. His shot chart for Game 4 read 4-for-4 in the paint, 6-for-9 from three (including five in the second half), and one game-winning tip-in. He outscored the entire San Antonio bench (33 to 24) and posted a plus-21 in 41 minutes. Brunson's 36 points and seven assists led the team in volume and the team's offense ran through him, but Anunoby's shots came at the moments when the lead was actually closing.

Victor Wembanyama scored 24 with 13 rebounds and four blocks for San Antonio. He was a minus-13 in 38 minutes. The Spurs were plus-9 in his five minutes off the floor and minus-22 in the third and fourth quarters with him on it. That is the line that flipped the MVP futures math.

Finals MVP Odds: How the Board Sits

The DraftKings Finals MVP board, as of Wednesday June 10 evening:

1. Jalen Brunson minus-135. Series averages 28.5 points and 7.3 assists, plus the game-tying free throws in Game 4. Still the safest pick if New York closes in 5 or 6. 2. OG Anunoby plus-280. Series averages 23.5 points and 5.5 rebounds, plus the putback. The narrative pick if his shooting holds. 3. Victor Wembanyama plus-390. Conditional bet. Only cashes if San Antonio wins three straight. Spurs are plus-1100 to win the series. 4. Karl-Anthony Towns plus-2200. Has not had the breakout Finals shooting night. Stuck behind two teammates on the totem pole.

The interesting math is the Anunoby Game 5 prop range. He is at plus-185 to make four or more threes Saturday, after going 7-for-9 in Game 4. If he hits that prop, the MVP futures shorten toward Brunson regardless of who has more points. The voters reward Finals-defining moments and Anunoby already has two: the putback and the chase-down block.

The Brunson Case

Brunson is still the favorite for a reason. He has scored 30-plus in three of four games. He has not turned the ball over more than twice in any game. His usage is 34.7% (highest of any Finals participant since LeBron in 2018) and his true shooting is .608. If the Knicks close out in Game 5 with another Brunson 30-plus, the voters pick him almost by default.

The risk to the Brunson case is a Game 5 cold night. If he goes 8-for-22 and Anunoby has 30 in a closeout win, the narrative flips. Voters submitted ballots for Iguodala over Curry in 2015 on lighter evidence. Voters submitted ballots for Cedric Maxwell over Bird in 1981 on lighter evidence. The Anunoby ceiling case has precedent.

The Wembanyama Floor

Wembanyama remains plus-390 because the books cannot rule out three straight Spurs wins entirely. He averages 26.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks in the series. His Game 3 was 32-15-4 and his Game 4 first half was 22 points. The Finals MVP only goes to the losing side if that side loses with a player having one of the great individual Finals series in history. Wemby is on that pace. The Spurs need three wins. They need a healthy Wemby for all three.

The wear and tear question matters. Wembanyama has played 41-plus minutes in three of four games. The 2025 first overall pick is on a heavier minutes load than the league projected for him this postseason. The Spurs have one day off before Saturday Game 5 and three before any potential Game 7 in San Antonio.

Betting Impact

Three angles for Saturday Game 5 markets.

1. Spurs minus-5.5 at home is the opening number on DraftKings. The Spurs are 6-1 at home in the playoffs and won the lone Finals home game by 20 in Game 3. The desperation index plus the home court math suggests the price is honest.

2. The series price is the bigger play. Knicks minus-650 to win the title, Spurs plus-1100. The Knicks have closed out series in elimination games before (round one against Detroit, round two against Boston). The implied probability of a Spurs comeback is 8.3%. That is a generous price on a team down 3-1 against a club with a 53-year title drought.

3. The MVP futures are where the value lives if you have a read on the closer. OG Anunoby plus-280 implies a 26.3% probability he wins the award. That is roughly priced on the assumption that he posts another 25-plus in Game 5. If you believe he does, the price is fair. If you believe he regresses, fade.

Player props for Game 5:

1. Brunson over 28.5 points at minus-110. He has cleared in three of four games. 2. Anunoby over 4.5 made threes at minus-115 (he went 7 in Game 4, 4 in Game 3, 3 in Game 2). 3. Wembanyama over 3.5 blocks at plus-120. He has cleared in three of four.

What to Watch Next

NBA Finals Game 5 is Saturday June 13 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Frost Bank Center. Courtside tickets opened at $114,800, the highest price for a non-Game 7 in NBA Finals history. The Spurs need to win three straight to win the series. They have not won three straight since the regular season closed in April.

If New York wins Saturday, the parade is Tuesday. The Knicks have not won a title since 1973. The bookmakers are pricing this as the most one-sided 3-1 series since Golden State led Cleveland 3-1 in 2016 (which Cleveland came back to win, the only 3-1 Finals comeback ever).

If San Antonio wins Saturday, Game 6 is Monday at MSG. The Knicks would be in win-or-go-home territory after the comeback of a lifetime, on the road. Game 7 (if needed) is Wednesday June 17 at Frost Bank Center. The series math is binary now. Tip-off Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Chad AI tracks every NBA Finals prop and the live Finals MVP board inside the Stat Sniper app. For Saturday's full board, the daily picks page carries the Game 5 lines through tip-off. Related reading: our Game 3 recap and Mitchell Robinson Game 1 update.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Lines courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel, accurate as of Wednesday June 10 evening. Game 4 box score per ESPN and NBA.com.