NFL MVP Odds 2026: Josh Allen Leads as Brock Purdy Closes the Gap

NFL MVP Odds 2026: The Board After Week 5

Josh Allen is still the betting favorite for 2026 NFL MVP, but the gap is shrinking fast. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen sits at +250 after Week 5, down from an even shorter price earlier in the season, while Brock Purdy has climbed to +300 as the clearest threat to the Bills quarterback's hold on the award. The NFL MVP odds 2026 race was a near-formality through the first few weeks. It is not anymore.

The Full DraftKings Board

Here is where the market stood after Week 5, per DraftKings:

1. Josh Allen (Bills): +250 2. Brock Purdy (49ers): +300 3. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): +650 4. Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars): +750 5. Joe Burrow (Bengals): +950 6. Lamar Jackson (Ravens): +1100 7. Drake Maye (Patriots): +1700 8. Dak Prescott (Cowboys): +2000

Converted to implied probability before the sportsbook's hold, Allen's +250 works out to roughly 29 percent and Purdy's +300 to about 25 percent, meaning the top two names alone account for more than half of the market's attention. Mahomes at +650 is closer to 13 percent, with Lawrence, Burrow, and Jackson bunched in the 8 to 10 percent range behind him. The rest of the field, Maye and Prescott included, is priced as a real but distant shot rather than a live threat to the top of the board.

What Is Driving the Numbers

Allen's case has not changed much since the preseason: he remains the betting favorite across major sportsbooks, and DraftKings' own MVP coverage has kept him in the top slot every week this year even as his price has moved around inside that range. Purdy is the one closing distance, and the reason is straightforward. San Francisco has started 5-0, and a quarterback on an undefeated team with real counting numbers is precisely the profile MVP voters have rewarded in recent cycles. Mahomes and Lawrence remain in what DraftKings' coverage calls striking distance, close enough that a big three-game stretch from either would put them back in the conversation, but neither has separated from the pack the way Allen and Purdy have. Burrow and Jackson round out the group of players still mathematically live without yet forcing a market correction.

The Field Behind the Top Two

Lamar Jackson at +1100 is the name most likely to disrupt the Allen-Purdy conversation if Baltimore strings together a few blowout wins, since voters have rewarded his rushing production in past MVP cycles even when his passing numbers trail the league's top arms. Joe Burrow at +950 sits just ahead of him, priced as the best bet among the AFC's non-Allen quarterbacks, a reflection of Cincinnati staying competitive despite a tougher path than Buffalo's. Drake Maye at +1700 is the market's nod to New England's surprising start, a price that would have looked unlikely on a young quarterback a year ago and now reads as a reasonable long shot rather than a novelty number. Dak Prescott's +2000 closes out the board, priced as a real but distant possibility behind a Dallas offense that has not separated itself from the pack through five weeks. None of these four is likely to overtake Allen or Purdy without a dramatic shift at the top, either an Allen slump or a Purdy loss that knocks San Francisco out of the undefeated conversation, but the gap between fourth and eighth on this board is thin enough that a month of strong play from any one of them could reorder the bottom half entirely.

Betting and DFS Impact

A two-horse market like this one changes how a futures bet should be shaped. Backing Allen at +250 is a bet on continuity: he does not need a signature month, just to keep doing what has already made him the favorite for five straight weeks. Purdy at +300 is the better value if the 49ers stay unbeaten into November, since an untouched record tends to pull MVP voters toward a quarterback even when his raw counting stats trail the field. Mahomes at +650 is the classic hedge: a Chiefs team that finds its early-season form could make that number look short in hindsight, and multi-way futures tickets built around all three (Allen, Purdy, and Mahomes) spread the risk without abandoning the top of the market. For weekly DFS builds, Purdy's current form makes him the higher-ceiling play against lighter secondaries, while Allen's dual-threat floor keeps him in play even in a game script that leans run-heavy.

Compare this board against every other league's championship and award futures on StatSniper's AI sports picks hub, and see how the market is pricing the path to February in StatSniper's Super Bowl odds coverage.

FAQ

Who is favored to win 2026 NFL MVP right now? Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Josh Allen is the favorite at +250 after Week 5, with Brock Purdy second at +300.

Why have Brock Purdy's MVP odds improved? Purdy has led the 49ers to a 5-0 start, and an undefeated record behind a quarterback with strong counting numbers is the profile that has pulled MVP voters' attention in recent seasons.

Are Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence still real NFL MVP contenders? Yes, both remain within striking distance at +650 and +750, respectively, close enough that a strong multi-week stretch could move either back toward the top of the board.

What does an NFL MVP price of +250 actually mean? A player at +250 is implied to have roughly a 29 percent chance to win before the sportsbook's hold is applied, meaning a $100 bet would profit $250 if that player wins the award.

Follow Every MVP Swing With Chad AI

NFL MVP odds move every Sunday, and the gap between Allen and Purdy is already thin enough to flip on one bad week. StatSniper's Chad AI tracks every MVP and award futures shift inside the app in real time, so you are betting this week's number, not last month's.

---

*21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Stat Sniper provides data and projections for informational purposes; you are responsible for your own wagers.*