Avalanche Golden Knights Game 4 Sweep Watch: Vegas Up 3-0, Hertl Hero, MacKinnon's Last Stand

Tomas Hertl scored the go-ahead goal at 8:21 of the third period Sunday, and the Vegas Golden Knights completed a comeback from down 3-0 to beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3 and take a stranglehold 3-0 lead in the 2026 Western Conference Final. Game 4 is Tuesday, May 26 at T-Mobile Arena, puck drop 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, and Vegas is one win from the Stanley Cup Final. The Avalanche have to win four straight, including three on the road, to keep the season alive.

No team in NHL history has come back from down 3-0 in a conference final. Eight have done it across all playoff rounds. The odds for Tuesday reflect that math: Vegas opens minus-160 on the puckline at DraftKings, with the home moneyline closer to minus-145.

Game 3: How Vegas Stole It

The Avalanche led 3-0 after 26 minutes. Gabriel Landeskog opened the scoring, Nazem Kadri made it 2-0, and Jack Drury extended the lead. Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy pulled netminder Adin Hill in favor of Akira Schmid, the Knights tightened up in the neutral zone, and the comeback started.

What flipped the game: a disputed no-goal review in the second period that the Avalanche thought they had pushed to 4-0. The puck was waved off for goaltender interference. Two minutes later Vegas scored its first. Within 10 minutes of game time, the score was 3-3. Hertl finished it in the third with the dagger.

Read the Game 3 Avalanche must-win piece we ran Saturday for context on the pre-game stakes. The story is now considerably bleaker.

A few series-level numbers from the NHL.com series page.

1. Vegas leads all 2026 playoff teams in goals (Pavel Dorofeyev, 9), assists (Jack Eichel, 14), and points (Mitch Marner, 18). Brett Howden is second in goals at 8. 2. Colorado has averaged 4.11 goals per game in these playoffs, most in the league. They have scored 11 across three games against Vegas. 3. Nathan MacKinnon has 7 goals and 6 assists in the playoffs, but only 2 points across the three WCF games. 4. The Avalanche are 0-3 on the power play in the series. Their PP unit clicked at 27.2 percent in the regular season. 5. Adin Hill is 3-0 in the series with a .921 save percentage. Akira Schmid relieved him in Game 3 and stopped all 13 shots he faced. 6. Cale Makar returned from a lower-body injury for Game 3. He played 26:14, posted no points, and looked a step short on the Hertl winner.

Betting Impact: Vegas Minus-160 to Close

DraftKings opened Game 4 at Knights minus-160 puckline, minus-145 moneyline, total 6.5. The number is in line with where the home favorite has sat all series. The interesting market is the series price.

Vegas is now minus-1400 to win the series. Colorado is plus-700. Implied probability for the Avalanche reverse sweep: roughly 12.5 percent. That is higher than any of the eight historical 3-0 comeback wins by team but lower than the actual base rate of reverse sweeps in conference finals (zero).

Three angles for Tuesday.

1. Eichel total points over. Eichel has 18 playoff points, three in this series, and the Avalanche have no answer for his middle-third entries. The over on his points prop is the cleanest line on the slate. He has cleared 1.5 points in two of three WCF games. 2. MacKinnon goal scorer. Even with the down series, MacKinnon is plus-145 to score anytime, which is reasonable value for a player with 7 in this run. The Avalanche will trail eventually and start playing 4-on-2 hockey. He is the beneficiary. 3. Under 6.5 total goals. Vegas has clamped down defensively since the Game 3 comeback. The Knights have allowed five goals in the last two games combined and won both. The total has finished under in two of three.

For DFS, Eichel and Marner are the chalk plays at the highest salaries. The contrarian leverage is on Howden ($5,200 range on DraftKings) and Dorofeyev, both of whom have been finishing chances at elite rates.

What MacKinnon Has to Do

Colorado's best player has 2 points in three games against the Vegas top pair of Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore. That is the macro problem. Jared Bednar has to find a way to get MacKinnon clean offensive zone entries against either the third pair or the Howden line, because the Eichel matchup minutes have been a wash.

The Game 4 wrinkle: with Makar back, Colorado can run more of the puck-moving D pairings that opened the playoff run. The Avalanche's transition offense has died in this series because Devon Toews was carrying the puck possessions Makar usually handles. If Makar's mobility is back to playoff form (he played 26 minutes in Game 3 but the rust was visible), Colorado can manufacture more controlled entries and get MacKinnon the puck moving north.

The matchup math also favors a coverage tweak. Cassidy has put Eichel on the ice against MacKinnon for 67 percent of MacKinnon's even-strength shifts. That is a soft-matchup feast for an Eichel line that does not need favors. If Bednar can get Cale Makar back to driving play, the next-game adjustment writes itself.

What to Watch Next

Puck drop Tuesday, May 26 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Three things to track before then.

1. Bednar's net. Does Mackenzie Blackwood get the Game 4 start or does Bednar go back to Scott Wedgewood? Blackwood gave up four goals on 19 shots in Game 3 before being pulled. Wedgewood has not played since Round 2. 2. Makar's minutes. He went 26:14 in Game 3 after missing two games. If Bednar leans on him for 28 plus Tuesday, that is the season-on-the-line signal. 3. Vegas line discipline. The Knights took only two minor penalties in Game 3. The Avalanche power play needs an opening. If Vegas gives them four chances Tuesday, the math swings.

If Vegas closes out, the Stanley Cup Final opens Friday or Saturday against the winner of Hurricanes-Canadiens. Carolina leads that series 2-1 with Game 4 in Montreal Wednesday. A Vegas vs. Carolina Final is the matchup the league has not seen, and the futures market has Vegas at plus-180 to win the Cup, second-shortest behind the Hurricanes.

If Colorado wins, the series shifts back to Denver for Game 5 Thursday at 9 p.m. ET. The 3-1 deficit has been overcome 32 times in NHL history. The price says Vegas is closing this tonight.

Chad AI tracks every prop and series price across the NHL playoffs. Hit the NHL daily picks page for the Tuesday board.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Lines pulled from DraftKings the afternoon of May 26, 2026. Lines move. Always shop.