NHL MVP Odds 2026-27: McDavid Favored to Reclaim the Hart

Connor McDavid opens the 2026-27 season as the Hart Trophy favorite at odds as short as +250 at Caesars Sportsbook, with BetMGM at +270 and DraftKings at +300, per SportsBettingDime's tracker updated Sept. 18. That makes him the top name in the NHL MVP odds market again, even though he did not actually win the award last season.

This is the first Hart Trophy odds board Stat Sniper has run, so consider it the baseline. We will track how this market moves as puck drop approaches on Sept. 29 and as the 84-game season unfolds.

NHL MVP Odds 2026-27: The Full Hart Trophy Board

Here is where the NHL MVP odds market stood as of Sept. 18, drawing the best number posted at BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars for each player.

| Player | Team | Best Odds | |-|-|-| | Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | +300 | | Nathan MacKinnon | Colorado Avalanche | +360 | | Macklin Celebrini | San Jose Sharks | +450 | | Leon Draisaitl | Edmonton Oilers | +1100 | | Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning | +1200 | | Kirill Kaprizov | Minnesota Wild | +1700 | | Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | +1800 | | David Pastrnak | Boston Bruins | +2500 | | Jack Hughes | New Jersey Devils | +2500 | | Nick Suzuki | Montreal Canadiens | +3500 |

Marner and Eichel (both +4000) round out the next tier behind the ten names above, with Makar, Robertson and Quinn Hughes further down the board. None of that is a settled forecast. It is a snapshot roughly two weeks before a single game has been played, which is exactly when the value in an NHL MVP odds market is easiest to find and easiest to misread.

Why McDavid Is the Favorite Again

McDavid did not win the 2026 Hart. Nikita Kucherov did, by just 10 voting points, the tightest finish the Professional Hockey Writers' Association has produced since the 2001-02 race. Books are pricing that outcome as noise rather than signal, McDavid is back at the top of the board while Kucherov sits all the way down at +1200.

That gap is the story of this market. Voters reward counting stats and team success late in the season, and McDavid has led the league in both categories often enough that one narrow loss barely moves his price. Bettors treating last year's vote as the new baseline, instead of the outlier it was, are the ones handing this market its edge.

MacKinnon and Celebrini Lead the Chase

Nathan MacKinnon sits second at +360, without ever quite closing the gap on the Hart itself. Colorado's ceiling as a team matters here. A deep playoff run tends to move voters more than a scoring title alone, and MacKinnon has both in reach.

Macklin Celebrini is the name reshaping this board's third tier. At +450, the 19-year-old Sharks center is priced ahead of past Hart winners twice his age, which tells you how seriously books are taking his sophomore leap after last year's historic teenage scoring pace. We covered Celebrini's Hart Trophy case in depth last spring, and the same question defines his 2026-27 odds: whether San Jose can climb into playoff position, because voters rarely hand the Hart to a player on a lottery team.

Where the Value Sits: Kaprizov, Matthews and the Field

For DFS and season-long bettors, the NHL MVP odds board is really two markets stacked on top of each other. The top three are priced for name recognition and recent finishes. Everyone from +1100 down is priced on projected role, and that is where a hot October can move a number fast.

Kirill Kaprizov at +1700 is the clearest example. Minnesota's offense runs through him more than any team above him on this board runs through its best player, and a strong two-way case (points plus playoff position) is the template that actually wins Harts. Auston Matthews at +1800 and Leon Draisaitl at +1100 both carry goal-scoring floors that keep them live all season even without a hot start. David Pastrnak at +2500 is the number worth revisiting in November, Boston's supporting cast is the variable, not his own production.

The 84-Game Season Changes the Math

The 2026-27 season expands to 84 games per team, up from 82, and opens Sept. 29 with the Hurricanes raising their Stanley Cup banner against the Panthers. We broke down the full opening night schedule and new game count separately, but the MVP angle is straightforward: two extra games per team means two extra chances to pad a counting-stat lead, which historically favors the players already at the top of a scoring race rather than a late-season surge candidate. That is a small tailwind for McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov, all top-line scorers on teams expected to contend, and a minor headwind for anyone hoping a hot final six weeks flips the vote.

What to Watch Next

Opening night on Sept. 29 is the first real data point, McDavid and the Oilers host Vancouver at 10 p.m. ET on Sportsnet. Watch how Edmonton's offense looks without a full training camp adjustment period, and track whether Celebrini's Sharks come out of the gate fast enough to keep him in playoff-race contention rather than lottery-team purgatory. Books typically make their first real move on this board in mid-November once a full month of scoring data is in, that is the window when Kaprizov, Pastrnak or a name not yet on this list can jump into the top five. StatSniper tracks that value as it develops, start with the AI sports picks hub for the live board, and read Chad for where the market has not caught up yet.

FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2026-27 Hart Trophy? Connor McDavid is the favorite at odds as short as +250, with Nathan MacKinnon (+360) and Macklin Celebrini (+450) next on the NHL MVP odds board as of Sept. 18.

Why isn't reigning MVP Nikita Kucherov higher on the board? Kucherov won the 2026 Hart by just 10 voting points over McDavid, the tightest finish since 2001-02. Books are pricing that as a close outcome likely to swing back rather than a new baseline, which is why he sits at +1200.

Does Macklin Celebrini have real Hart Trophy odds at 19? At +450, yes, ahead of established stars like Kaprizov, Matthews and Draisaitl. His case depends heavily on whether San Jose can climb into playoff position, the same condition that shaped his case last season.

When does the 2026-27 NHL season start? Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026, with the Hurricanes raising their Stanley Cup banner against the Panthers and a full 84-game schedule, up from 82, across the league.

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