USA-Paraguay Matchday: Enciso Out, Pulisic Plus-225 to Score, Pochettino's XI

Paraguay confirmed that Julio Enciso, their best attacking player and the price-mover on most pre-tournament US-Paraguay markets, will miss Friday's opener at SoFi Stadium with the injury he picked up in camp last week. That sets up USA at minus-110, draw at plus-240, and Paraguay at plus-320 (FanDuel, Friday morning) for a 9 p.m. ET kickoff. Christian Pulisic sits at plus-225 to score anytime, and the plus-120 to score or assist is the public's chalk play of the night. With Enciso out and Pochettino settled on a 4-3-3, the matchday angle is whether USA's midfield can stay disciplined enough to let the wide players play.

USA has played one competitive home World Cup match before (1994 group stage). This is the first as a tournament co-host with full home support, and the lineup decisions matter more than the price.

What Enciso Out Actually Changes

Enciso is Paraguay's best one-vs-one dribbler and primary chance creator. Without him, Paraguay's attack runs through Miguel Almiron and Antonio Sanabria, with Almiron coming in off the right and Sanabria leading the line. That is a far more predictable shape, and the kind of structure Pochettino's USMNT spent the last 18 months learning to defend in camp.

Paraguay's expected goals per match in 2025 dropped from 1.34 with Enciso to 0.91 without. Across the eight matches he missed, Paraguay scored more than once exactly once. The Enciso-out version of Paraguay is a low-scoring counterattacking side.

That makes the USA team total over 1.5 the cleaner bet than the USA moneyline. USA at home, with possession, against a defensive shell missing its best creator, is the script that produces two goals.

Pochettino's Likely XI

Per the most recent USMNT training reports and Pochettino's pre-tournament friendlies, the expected XI is:

1. Matt Turner in goal. 2. Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Sergino Dest in a back four. 3. Tyler Adams as the No. 6, Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah as the eights. 4. Christian Pulisic on the left, Tim Weah on the right, Folarin Balogun at center forward.

The wild card is Dest. He has been managed through a hamstring issue, and Joe Scally is the deputy if Dest is held back. Confirm at 8:00 p.m. ET when the team sheets release.

The Props Worth Shopping

Pulisic anytime scorer at plus-225 on FanDuel is the chalk for a reason: he is Milan's best player and USA's primary creator from wide left. At plus-120 to score or assist, the price compresses to break-even, but the implied probability of either outcome is closer to 60% based on his role and last 24 matches across club and country.

Balogun anytime scorer at plus-160 (DraftKings opening, Friday morning) is the lower-juice play if you think Pulisic gets shaded by two defenders. Balogun's 13 Ligue 1 goals for Monaco came on a 14% conversion rate, which scales up against a Paraguay back four sitting deep.

Tim Weah shots on target over 0.5 at plus-130 is the matchday angle that the public is undervaluing. Weah's shot map against deep-blocking opponents skews toward cutting inside and shooting from the right half-space, exactly the look Paraguay's shape concedes.

For DFS, Pulisic captain is the chalk. The pivot is a Balogun-Weah double-stack with a USA defender (Robinson or Ream) for clean-sheet leverage.

What to Watch Next

Pochettino's substitution pattern is the read for what he thinks about the group. If he goes early to Brenden Aaronson, Gio Reyna, or Haji Wright, he is chasing goals. If he subs defensively first, he is protecting a result. The first half-time XI on Friday tells you whether Pochettino views Group D as a straightforward advance or a problem to manage.

Canada-Bosnia kicks off at 3 p.m. ET in Toronto, and the day's results will set the price for the rest of the group stage. A USA win plus a Canada win is the co-host script the tournament organizers have been waiting on for three years.

Chad AI tracks every World Cup prop and live line move inside the Stat Sniper app. For full Group D odds and our model's reads, see the latest Soccer daily picks and our USA-Paraguay opener preview for the deeper tactical breakdown.

Source: CBS Sports USMNT vs Paraguay preview.

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