USMNT vs Turkiye Preview: Pochettino Rotation at SoFi, Pulisic Fit, USA Plus-115

USMNT vs Türkiye closes Group D at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, June 25 at 10:00 PM ET, with the United States already through as group winners after a 4-1 win over Paraguay and Türkiye eliminated after losing both of their matches, per CBS Sports. The match airs on Fox in English and Telemundo in Spanish.

Head coach Mauricio Pochettino has telegraphed heavy rotation. Four U.S. players carry yellow cards into this match and would miss the round-of-32 game if booked, per CBS Sports: defenders Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson, midfielder Tyler Adams, and forward Folarin Balogun.

What Pochettino Has Said About the USMNT vs Turkiye Rotation

Pochettino has framed the lineup as "the kind of game we have won with a rotation since the Gold Cup," and CBS Sports reports the rotation will be heavy enough to protect every yellow-carded starter while giving the bench-tier players a full 90 in the World Cup environment. The U.S. has already won Group D for the first time since 2010, per the same CBS Sports preview.

Christian Pulisic declared himself fit on Wednesday and has completed three days of training after a calf issue caused him to miss the Australia win, per CBS Sports. The medical staff is still evaluating Cristian Roldan, who has not trained all week with a muscle strain. Pochettino said Pulisic's role on Thursday will be a managed one regardless of the lineup decision.

The expected starting eleven per Sports Illustrated's predicted lineup is a 3-4-2-1: Freese in goal; a back three of Freeman, McKenzie, and Trusty; Dest and Arfsten as wingbacks with McKennie and Berhalter in central midfield; Zendejas and Reyna pushing on; Wright as the No. 9. That is a near-complete swap from the Paraguay lineup and lets Pulisic come on for the final 30 if needed.

The Numbers and the Market

DraftKings has USA at plus-115 to win, the draw at plus-300, and Türkiye at plus-205, per DraftKings Network. ESPN's number is closer to a coin flip, with USA at minus-105, the draw at plus-300, and Türkiye at plus-255, per ESPN's odds page. The spread sits at USA minus-1.5 at plus-295 on DraftKings, with Türkiye plus-1.5 at minus-400, also per DraftKings.

Dimers' computer model has USA at 50.4 percent, the draw at 23.3 percent, and Türkiye at 26.3 percent, per Dimers. A rotated U.S. lineup tightens that win probability, which is the angle the live market overcorrects on in the first 15 minutes if Türkiye starts on the front foot.

USMNT vs Turkiye Betting and DFS Impact

The smart move on this match is staying away from the moneyline at plus-115 and reading the rotation. A rotated U.S. side that prioritizes legs over result is a different team than the one that put four past Paraguay, and the over/under and player props are where the real edges live. Pulisic anytime scorer at any number better than plus-200 is a pass if he is held to a 30-minute cameo. Folarin Balogun is the call to sit per the yellow-card math, which lifts Haji Wright's anytime price as the de facto No. 9.

The Türkiye angle is corners and shots. With nothing to play for in terms of advancement and the entire backline expected to start, Türkiye will press higher than they have in the group stage. The first-half draw at plus-220 on FanDuel is the kind of game-state bet that ages well in dead-rubber finales.

The R32 picture is the real prize. By kickoff Friday the U.S. will know which Group F side they face: Japan, the Netherlands, or Sweden, depending on the AT&T Stadium and Arrowhead results. The R32 line will move twice between Thursday night and Friday morning. Lock in the U.S. side early if you like the price.

The goals total is the other angle on this match. A heavily rotated U.S. backline gives Türkiye more clean half-chances than the Paraguay match did, which directionally helps the over on totals and hurts the clean sheet props for the U.S. side. The rotation news landed late enough in the week that the line move on totals has already started, per the DraftKings odds page trail.

What to Watch Next

The 7:30 PM ET first whistle slot at SoFi is a soft window for U.S. ratings. The story is Pochettino's bench. Players like Diego Luna, Damion Downs and Jack McGlynn get the closest thing to a real game audition they will see at this tournament. If one of them produces a moment, the depth chart for the R32 match shifts in a measurable way.

The other live story is Türkiye's response to elimination. Vincenzo Montella's side will play for pride and to give players minutes in front of NFL-scaled crowds. A clean sheet for Türkiye, even in a loss, would be a real talking point about a roster that came in at pl