EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, April 24, 2026

Analysis

Sunderland sits at 12 wins, 11 draws, 10 losses. Nottingham Forest lags behind at 9 wins, 15 draws, 9 losses. The line's at pickem, but my model projects Sunderland by just 0.4 goals. That's an 8.9% edge to bet them at +0. Books have it even across 70% at 0 and 30% at -0.5 for the visitors, yet the model leans Sunderland -0.1 in its spread calc. Dig into the scoring. Both sides average 1.1 goals per game offensively. Sunderland allows 1.2, while Forest leaks 1.4. That defensive edge for the home side matters. Matchup wise, Sunderland's offense ranks 17th out of 20 against Forest's 12th ranked defense. Flip it, Forest's weak 18th ranked attack faces Sunderland's stout sixth ranked defense. Home team has a real shot at a clean sheet or narrow win. Head to head this season backs it up. Sunderland's 1-0 with a 1.0 goal average margin. Draws are common in EPL, but the model sees value avoiding the trap of laying nothing on Forest. Rest and form tilt slightly Sunderland's way too. They've held firm at home. This isn't chasing hype. Numbers say take the home dog at even money.

Public Fade

Public's all over Forest because of name recognition and that draw heavy record. They ignore the defensive mismatch and H2H loss. Books win when casuals bet reputation over stats.