EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, April 25, 2026

Analysis

Arsenal's sitting pretty at 21-5-7, while Newcastle's 12-15-6 record shows they're middling at best. Model gives Arsenal an 82.5% win probability, spitting out a -1.5 spread against the book's -1 line. That's a clean 7.7% edge on the spread too, but the moneyline's where the juice is at 13.3%. Arsenal averages 1.9 goals per game and allows just 0.8, feasting on Newcastle's leaky defense that coughs up 1.5. Flip it around, Newcastle's offense ranks 10th facing Arsenal's top-ranked unit, No. 1 in the league. Arsenal's offense is second overall against Newcastle's 14th-ranked defense. H2H this season? Arsenal's 1-0, winning by an average margin of 1.0. Books are soft here, with 70% at -1 spread while model adjusts to -1.0. Newcastle can't keep up. Arsenal rolls, probably by two.

Public Fade

Public's piling on Arsenal ML anyway, but they're sleeping on the spread value. Folks see Newcastle's occasional punch and think it's close. Nah, Arsenal's elite D shuts that down cold.

Analysis

Liverpool's 16-10-7 form dwarfs Crystal Palace's 11-11-10 mediocrity. Model pegs a 77% win chance, with spread at -1 matching the line for a slight 0.9% lean, but moneyline edge pops at 12.7%. Liverpool scores 1.6 per game, concedes 1.3, while Palace musters just 1.1 on both ends. Liverpool's No. 4 offense tests Palace's solid No. 3 defense, but Palace's 16th-ranked attack faces Liverpool's eighth-best backline. H2H this season shows Palace up 1-0 by a goal, weird outlier. Model spread lands at -0.9, close to book's -1 but with 70% books at full -1 versus model's slight pull to -0.6. Liverpool's home dominance and pace should overwhelm. Palace grinds games low scoring, but Liverpool breaks through. Expect a 2-0 or 2-1 win. Confidence here is sky high at 95%.

Public Fade

Everyone's spooked by that one H2H loss. Public fades Liverpool ML thinking Palace parks the bus effectively. But models see through it, Liverpool's attack too potent long term.

Analysis

Wolves are dismal at 3-22-8, dead last offensively at 0.7 goals per game while leaking 1.9. Tottenham's no prize at 7-16-10, but they score 1.3 and face Wolves' 19th-ranked defense. Model loves Tottenham -0.5 with a +0.6 spread projection against the 0.5 line, good for 2.5% edge. Moneyline leans their way too at 28.9% win prob and 8.1% edge. Matchups scream value: Wolves' offense ranks 20th against Tottenham's porous but workable 17th defense; Tottenham's 13th offense exploits Wolves' backline trash. Model spread at +0.3 adjusted, with books 70% at 0.5 while model nudges to even. Wolves can't score enough to hang. Tottenham grinds out a 1-0 or 2-1. Public overlooks how bad Wolves truly are. Solid 91% confidence play.

Public Fade

Bettors love backing the home dog in Wolves, pity party for their season. They ignore Tottenham's edge in scoring and Wolves' utter offensive failure. Data says fade that noise.