EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 17, 2026

Analysis

Newcastle sits at 13 wins, 16 draws, and 7 losses this season. They score 1.4 goals per game and allow 1.4. West Ham checks in at 9 wins, 18 draws, and 9 losses with 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 allowed. The model sees a 0.7 goal advantage for the home side but the book only has them at 0.5. That creates a 5.1 percent edge on the spread. Newcastle offense ranks 10th against West Ham defense at 18th. Their defense sits at 15th while West Ham offense ranks 16th. Head to head this season tells a story but the current form matters more. Newcastle has been better at home and West Ham struggles on the road. The model puts their win probability at 60.7 percent which gives a 15.9 percent edge on the moneyline at plus 123. Both sides average low scoring games but Newcastle should be able to find the net and keep things tight enough to cover the spread. The 95 percent confidence level shows the model trusts this one.

Public Fade

The public tends to see West Ham as a tough draw but the numbers show they allow too many goals and struggle against teams like Newcastle who can control games at home. Most bettors are avoiding the favorite at plus money when they should be jumping on it.

Analysis

Everton comes in with 13 wins, 13 draws, and 10 losses. They score 1.3 goals per game and allow the gleichen 1.3. Sunderland sits at 12 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses with 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 allowed. The model sees a 0.7 goal advantage for the home side and the book has them at 0.5 which creates a 3.4 percent edge. Everton offense ranks 13th against Sunderland defense which is 4th. Their defense sits at 5th while Sunderland offense ranks 19th. The model gives Everton a 69.1 percent win probability and a 13.5 percent edge on the moneyline at minus 125. Sunderland struggles to score against strong defenses and Everton has shown they can keep things tight at home. Both sides keep games low scoring so the 2.5 total looks right but the spread offers value. The 80 percent confidence level still makes this one worth backing.

Public Fade

The public often sees Sunderland as competitive but their offense ranks 19th and they are away from home. Most bettors will take them live or on the draw when the model sees Everton as clear favorites.

Analysis

Brentford comes in with 14 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses. They score 1.4 goals per game and allow 1.4. Crystal Palace sits at 11 wins, 14 draws, and 11 losses with 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 allowed. The model sees a 0.9 goal advantage for the home side and the book has them at 0.5 which creates a 7.8 percent edge. Brentford offense ranks 9th against Crystal Palace defense at 8th. Their defense sits at 10th while Crystal Palace offense ranks 17th. Crystal Palace is on a back to back and traveling while Brentford gets 7 days rest. The model gives Brentford a 72.5 percent win probability and a 13.3 percent edge on the moneyline at minus 145. Head to head this season shows a negative margin for Brentford but the current rest advantage makes a big difference. Both sides keep games low scoring so the 2.5 total looks right but the spread offers value. The 95 percent confidence level makes this one worth backing.

Public Fade

The public sees Crystal Palace as a tough draw but they are on a back to back and traveling. Most bettors will take them on the draw or as underdogs when the model sees Brentford as clear favorites.