EPL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, November 2, 2026

Analysis

This is a clear pass, and the numbers make that decision pretty easy. Newcastle United is listed at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while Everton sits at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. That record gap gives Newcastle the better profile, especially with home field, but it isn't enough to justify a spread of Newcastle minus 1.5. The model makes Newcastle only a minus 0.25 favorite. That's a massive difference from the market line. A team projected around a quarter goal better should not be asked to win by two goals, particularly when the model gives Newcastle just a 45 percent chance to win outright. That number also leaves plenty of room for an Everton result or a draw, and soccer bettors know how quickly a seemingly comfortable favorite turns into a one goal match. The total is no better. The model projects 2.75 goals against a posted number of 2.5, but the edge is listed at zero, so there isn't enough separation to attack the over. Newcastle also has Ewen Jaouen and Tino Livramento out, which adds another reason not to force a favorite position without stronger support. Newcastle may win. The model simply doesn't see enough value in that outcome at these prices. Pass.

Public Fade

Casual bettors will see Newcastle United at home and assume the club should handle an Everton side with two wins and four losses. But the market is asking Newcastle to win by more than the model expects, while the 45 percent win probability keeps the draw firmly in play.