La Liga Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, October 23, 2026

Analysis

Alavés is the clear model favorite here, but that doesn't automatically make the home side a bet. The model projects Alavés at minus 0.75 on the spread, while the listed line sits at minus 2.5. That's a major gap. Alavés may be the more likely winner, but asking them to win by three goals is a different proposition entirely. The moneyline tells the same story. Alavés has a 58.9% modeled win probability, which gives the home team an advantage, but it also leaves plenty of room for a Málaga result that doesn't involve an Alavés win. In soccer, that includes the draw, and Málaga's 0-5-4 record shows a team with five draws rather than a side that has been beaten every time out. That matters when the market is demanding a decisive margin. The total is also shaded slightly too high for the model. The projection is 2.25 goals against a posted total of 2.5, but the model still assigns zero edge and recommends a pass. Injuries add uncertainty on both sides, with Alavés missing Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garcés, while Málaga is without Julen Lobete, Aarón Moloney, Diego Murillo, and Juan Cruz. There are too many variables and no verified price advantage. Pass.

Public Fade

The public will likely see Málaga's winless 0-5-4 record and assume Alavés can roll at home. But the model only gives Alavés a 58.9% win probability and projects a spread of minus 0.75, not minus 2.5. The favorite may win, but the margin is overpriced.