MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, May 21, 2026

Analysis

Atlanta comes in at 33 and 16 while Miami sits at 22 and 27. The Braves offense ranks second in the league while their defense sits at number two as well. Miami's offense ranks fifteenth and they allow the fifteenth most runs. Sandy Alcantara has a 3.53 ERA but his recent numbers sit at 4.48. Spencer Strider has a 2.45 ERA and that looks like a major edge for Atlanta on the mound. The model projects Atlanta to win by 2.1 runs. The book has them at minus 1.5 and that gives us a 6.2 percent edge. Atlanta has covered 72 percent of their road games this season. Miami covers just 43 percent at home. The Braves have won seven of their last ten while the Marlins sit at five and five over that stretch. Atlanta has taken three of the first four meetings this year. Miami scores 4.4 runs per game and allows 4.1. The Braves score 5.3 and allow just 2.7. That offensive and defensive gap shows up in the numbers. The model sees a clear advantage for the Braves on both sides of the ball.

Public Fade

The public sees Miami at home and thinks the underdog stays close. They forget Atlanta's top two offense and defense ranking. The recent form shows the Braves on a roll and the Marlins just average.

Analysis

The Athletics come in at 24 and 24 while the Angels sit at 17 and 32. Jose Soriano has a 2.41 ERA but his recent form shows 5.13. Luis Severino has a 4.45 ERA but has improved to 3.07 lately. The model sees the Athletics as a slight favorite on the road. The total projects at 8.5 while the line sits at 9.5. That creates a 10.6 percent edge on the under. Los Angeles scores 4.0 runs per game and allows 4.2. Oakland scores 4.5 and allows 4.0. The Athletics offense ranks twelfth and their defense ranks twenty first. The Angels offense ranks twenty fifth and their defense ranks twenty seventh. Oakland has covered 69 percent of their road games. Los Angeles covers just 48 percent at home. The Athletics have won four of their last ten while the Angels have dropped eight of ten. The model sees Oakland as a better team in a road spot where they should not be getting plus money.

Public Fade

The public sees the Angels at home and thinks they bounce back from a bad season. They forget Los Angeles is 17 and 32 and has lost eight of their last ten. Oakland is just 24 and 24 but shows better recent form and a better overall matchup.

Analysis

The Yankees come in at 30 and 19 while Toronto sits at 21 and 27. Carlos Rodon has a 5.63 ERA and his recent form shows 6.16. The model sees the Yankees as a favorite at home. The spread projects at minus 2.0 while the book has them at minus 1.5. That creates a 5.5 percent edge. The total projects at 8.8 while the line sits at 8. That creates a 10 percent edge on the over. New York scores 5.1 runs per game and allows 4.9. Toronto scores 4.1 and allows 4.0. The Yankees offense ranks fourth and their defense ranks fifth. The Blue Jays offense ranks twenty second and their defense ranks fourteen. The Yankees have won two of the first two meetings this year. The Yankees have covered 55 percent at home. Toronto covers just 38 percent on the road. The Yankees have won four of their last ten while Toronto has won four of their last ten. The model sees New York dominating at home against a weaker opponent.

Public Fade

The public sees the Yankees as a big favorite and thinks the spread is too high. They forget New York ranks in the top five on both offense and defense. Toronto is 21 and 27 and has covered just 38 percent on the road.