MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, June 13, 2026

Analysis

The Yankees are coming into Toronto as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have won four straight and six of their last ten games. Cam Schlittler has been a revelation for the Bronx Bombers this season. He is sitting on a 1.87 ERA and even his recent form of 2.95 is better than most starters in the league. On the other side, Kevin Gausman is a known commodity, but the Blue Jays have struggled to find any real consistency. Toronto is currently 33 and 36, sitting below .500 for a reason. Their offense ranks 23rd in the league. That is a massive problem when you are facing a Yankees defense that ranks 3rd overall. The model sees a huge 12.2 percent edge on the Yankees at plus 1.5. It is rare to see that kind of value on a team playing this well. New York scores 5.1 runs per game while only allowing 2.7. Compare that to Toronto, who scores 4.1 and allows 4.0. The math just does not add up for the Blue Jays here. Even though the season series is tied at two games apiece, the Yankees have all the momentum. They cover the spread on the road 53 percent of the time. The model also likes the over. With a total set at 8 and the model predicting 8.3, there is a 3.1 percent edge. New York's offense should do most of the heavy lifting. And Toronto's defense, ranked 13th, will have their hands full.

Public Fade

The public loves backing home favorites like Gausman, but they are ignoring how dominant Schlittler has been. The Yankees are the better team in nearly every statistical category and getting runs with them is a gift.

Analysis

Atlanta is a juggernaut on the road. They cover the spread 66 percent of the time when they are away from home. That is a staggering number. Now they head into New York to face a Mets team that covers just 39 percent of the time at home. Martin Perez takes the mound for the Braves with a solid 3.02 ERA. While his recent form has dipped slightly to 4.25, he is still a reliable arm against a Mets offense that ranks 27th in the majors. New York is scoring just 4.0 runs per game. That is not going to cut it against an Atlanta defense that ranks 2nd in the league and allows only 3.5 runs. The Braves offense is the real story here. They are ranked 4th and put up 5.2 runs per contest. Our model is screaming about the total in this one. The line is set at 8, but the model projects 8.8 runs. That is a 9.5 percent edge on the over. It is the strongest total play on the board today. Even though the Mets have won five of their last ten, they are still eight games under .500. Atlanta is 45 and 23 for a reason. They are the better team in almost every statistical category. Taking the Braves at plus 1.5 provides a massive 11.7 percent edge according to the model. It is a high confidence play at 75 percent.

Public Fade

Bettors often think divisional home dogs like the Mets have a better chance than they do. The reality is that Atlanta is a road machine and the Mets struggle to cover in their own building.

Analysis

This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. St. Louis has won seven of their last ten games. Minnesota has dropped six of their last ten. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Cardinals here. Connor Prielipp is struggling for the Twins. He has a 5.15 ERA on the season, but his recent numbers are even worse at 6.69. That is a red flag for any bettor. Matthew Liberatore is not exactly an ace with a 4.48 ERA, but he has been much more stable than Prielipp lately. The Cardinals offense should have a field day against a Twins defense that ranks 27th in the league and gives up 5.4 runs per game. The model is leaning toward the Cardinals plus 1.5 with an 11.1 percent edge. Both teams are actually quite good at covering the spread. Minnesota covers 60 percent at home and St. Louis covers 61 percent on the road. But the offensive production for the Twins just is not there right now. Both teams score 4.5 runs per game, but the Twins' inability to stop opponents is the deciding factor. The model projects the spread at minus 1.3 for Minnesota, meaning getting 1.5 runs with the Cardinals is a gift. It is a 70 percent confidence play. Expect the Cardinals to keep this very close or win outright as they continue their push toward the top of the standings.

Public Fade

The public is leaning toward the Twins as home favorites, but they are overlooking Prielipp's recent collapse. His 6.69 recent ERA is a disaster waiting to happen against a hot Cardinals lineup.