MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, June 14, 2026

Analysis

Paul Skenes is the name that draws all the headlines, but he has been far from untouchable lately. He is carrying a five point three four ERA over his recent starts, which suggests that hitters are starting to figure out his timing. The Pirates might be at home, but they are running into a buzzsaw with this Miami team. The Marlins have won nine of their last ten games and are currently on a six game winning streak. They already handled Pittsburgh earlier this season with a five run margin of victory. While Max Meyer has been solid for Miami with a two point three two recent ERA, the Pirates offense is no joke. They rank sixth in the league and average over five runs per game. Our model is projecting a total of ten point six runs here, which gives us a huge seventeen percent edge against the book line of nine. Pittsburgh's defense is ranked twenty first in the league and they allow over four runs a game on average. When you combine a struggling Skenes with a Miami offense that cannot seem to lose, the over becomes the most logical play. The Marlins are also a strong lean at plus one and a half because they are playing much better baseball right now. They have all the momentum and the statistical backing to keep this close or win outright in a high scoring affair.

Public Fade

The public sees Paul Skenes and immediately thinks under. They are ignoring his recent five point three four ERA and the fact that Miami is the hottest team in the league right now. Don't fall for the name recognition when the recent data points toward a shootout.

Analysis

This matchup features two pitchers who started the season strong but are showing some cracks in the armor. Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Mets, and while his season ERA is respectable, his recent form shows a five point one one ERA. That is a dangerous number when you are facing an Atlanta Braves offense that ranks fourth in the league. The Braves score over five runs a game and they are especially dangerous on the road where they cover the spread sixty four percent of the time. On the other side, Bryce Elder has been a bright spot for Atlanta, but his recent four point three zero ERA suggests he is cooling off. The Mets offense is ranked twenty fourth, but they have shown life recently and managed to beat Atlanta in their only previous meeting this year. The model puts this total at nine point five, providing a twelve percent edge over the eight and a half currently offered. New York's defense is middle of the pack and they give up over four runs per game. Atlanta's defense is elite, but even the best units struggle when the opposing bats are at home in a rivalry game. We expect plenty of traffic on the bases today. Both of these starters are trending in the wrong direction, and these lineups are too talented to stay quiet for nine innings.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see Bryce Elder and his two point six six season ERA and hammer the under. They are missing the fact that his recent outings have been much shakier and that Peralta is currently giving up over five runs per start.

Analysis

The Washington Nationals are a dream for anyone who likes betting overs. They have the second best offense in the league, scoring over five runs a game, but their defense is ranked twenty ninth. That is a recipe for high scoring games every single night. Miles Mikolas gets the start for Washington and his five point nine zero season ERA tells you everything you need to know. Even though he has been slightly better in his most recent starts, he is still a pitcher that gives up a lot of contact. Seattle comes in with a very different profile, boasting the fifth best defense in baseball. Emerson Hancock has been incredible with a one point nine three recent ERA, but the Nationals offense is a different beast entirely. They put pressure on pitchers from the first inning. Seattle already beat Washington by six runs earlier this year, and their offense should have no trouble finding success against a Nationals pitching staff that allows nearly five runs per game. The model projects this total at nine point seven. Seattle is also a strong lean at plus one and a half. They have the defensive stability to hang around even if the game turns into a track meet. But with Mikolas on the mound and the Washington bats at home, nine runs feels like the floor for this one.

Public Fade

The public is looking at Emerson Hancock and his sub two recent ERA and assuming he will shut Washington down. They are forgetting that the Nationals have the number two offense in the league and that Mikolas is likely to give up four or five runs on his own.