MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Analysis

Paul Skenes is the name everyone knows, but his recent performance has been shaky. He is carrying a 5.67 ERA over his last few starts. That is a far cry from his 3.62 season average. On the other side, Hurston Waldrep sits at 3.68. The model is seeing a massive discrepancy in the total. Vegas has it at eight, but my model projects 9.4 runs. That is a 17.5 percent edge which is huge for a total. Pittsburgh has the third best offense in the league. They are scoring 5.2 runs per game. Atlanta is not far behind with the sixth ranked offense, putting up 4.9 runs per game. The situational spot favors the Pirates too. They have had two days of rest while the Braves are traveling and playing on a back to back. Tired bullpens lead to more runs. Atlanta has a great defense, but the Pirates are ranked 22nd on that side of the ball. This game has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair. The Pirates are five and five in their last ten games. Atlanta is four and six. Both teams are capable of big innings. Even though the Braves have dominated the head to head matchups this season, the model suggests this specific game environment is primed for the over. Do not let the big name pitcher scare you off. The bats are ready to go.

Public Fade

The public sees Paul Skenes and immediately thinks of a low scoring pitcher duel. They are ignoring his recent 5.67 ERA and the fact that Atlanta is traveling on zero rest. This total is set far too low for two top ten offenses.

Analysis

I am looking at the Reds as a home underdog tonight. We are getting one point five runs with an 11.2 percent model edge. Andrew Abbott is on the mound for Cincinnati. He has been solid with a 3.88 ERA on the year, but he has been even better lately with a 3.45 mark. The Phillies are a great team, but they are in a tough spot here. They are traveling for a back to back game. Cincinnati has been resting for two days. That extra energy matters in the middle of July. The Reds actually lead the season series two games to one. They have an average scoring margin of 2.3 against Philadelphia this year. The Phillies struggle to cover the spread on the road, doing so only 36 percent of the time. My model thinks the spread should be closer to 0.6. Getting that extra cushion of one point five runs is a gift. Both teams score around 4.2 to 4.5 runs per game. Their defensive rankings are also very similar. Cincinnati is 21st and Philadelphia is 16th. This should be a close, competitive game. The Reds are four and six in their last ten, but they have the rest advantage and the home field. I trust Abbott to keep them in this until the end.

Public Fade

Bettors are blindy backing the Phillies because of their 50 win record. They are ignoring that Philly is one of the worst road teams in the league against the spread and that Cincinnati has already won the season series.

Analysis

The Giants are sitting at 37 and 52, but they are the play tonight. We are taking the one point five runs with a 10.2 percent edge. Trevor McDonald is starting for San Francisco. His 4.42 ERA is not spectacular, but he is facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. Toronto is ranked 29th in offensive quality. They simply cannot score consistently. The Giants are not much better at 23rd, but they have the home field advantage. The model projects a very low scoring game. It sees 7.4 runs compared to the 7.5 line from the books. In low scoring games, the underdog getting runs is always the smarter play. It is much harder for a favorite to cover a spread when they only score three or four runs. San Francisco won the only meeting between these two teams this season by six runs. Toronto covers the spread on the road only 45 percent of the time. Both teams are struggling lately. The Giants are four and six in their last ten while the Blue Jays are three and seven. When you have two teams playing this poorly, you take the runs and the home team every time. My model puts the spread at 0.6. This should be a tight, ugly game that stays within one run.

Public Fade

The public usually defaults to the Blue Jays in this spot because they have a slightly better record. They are missing the fact that Toronto has the second worst offense in the league and a losing record on the road.