MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, August 7, 2026

Analysis

Merrill Kelly is the key to this handicap. His season ERA sits at 5.04, but you have to look at how he is throwing the ball lately. He has been elite over his recent starts with a 2.98 ERA. That is a massive improvement that the market has not fully adjusted for yet. On the other side, Roki Sasaki has been vulnerable for the Dodgers. He is carrying a 4.64 ERA and his recent form of 4.11 is not much better. The model sees a significant 11% edge on the Diamondbacks catching a run and a half at Chase Field. Arizona covers 54% of the time at home and they have played the Dodgers tough all season. These teams are 5 for 5 against each other this year with a tiny average margin of 0.3 runs. It is basically a coin flip every time they meet. The Dodgers might have the better overall record, but they are stumbling right now. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games. Arizona is 6 and 4 in that same span. We are getting a run and a half with the hotter team and the pitcher in better form. The model projects the spread at 1.3, making that 1.5 line very attractive. Arizona scores 4.6 runs per game and limits opponents to 4.1. Even if the Dodgers offense wakes up, the Diamondbacks have the tools to keep this within a single run.

Public Fade

The public is always going to hammer the Dodgers because of their name and star power. They see the 69 and 46 record and assume a blowout, but they are ignoring that Los Angeles has gone 2 for 10 in their last ten games.

Analysis

We are looking at a high scoring affair in the Bronx tonight. The model loves the Over 8.5 with a solid 4.2% edge. Max Fried is a big name, but he has been getting hit hard lately. His recent ERA is 4.89, which is a far cry from his season average of 3.12. Then you have Tyler Mahle for the Braves. He is sporting a 5.13 ERA on the year. Both offenses are in the top half of the league and capable of crooked numbers. Atlanta ranks 6th in scoring and the Yankees are 12th. The Braves are absolutely on fire right now. They are riding a seven game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10. They are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Yankees allow 3.7. But with Fried struggling, that defensive number is likely to climb. New York has had two days of rest, which usually helps the bats more than the arms. Atlanta is on a back to back and traveling, which often leads to sloppy defensive play or a tired bullpen. The model projects 8.9 runs, comfortably clearing the 8.5 line. When you have two pitchers trending in the wrong direction and two lineups that can go deep at any time, you take the Over. Don't let the names on the jerseys scare you away from a high scoring game.

Public Fade

Bettors see Max Fried on the mound and immediately think of a pitcher's duel. They are betting on his reputation rather than his recent 4.89 ERA and the fact that Atlanta is scoring nearly five runs a game.

Analysis

This is a classic value play that the model loves. I know Noah Schultz has a 5.82 ERA. I know Parker Messick is sitting at 2.57 for Cleveland. On paper, it looks like a blowout. But the Guardians offense is anemic. They rank 28th in the league and score only 3.9 runs per game. They simply do not have the firepower to pull away from teams, even against struggling pitchers. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense is actually decent, ranking 8th in the league. They score 4.7 runs per game. Chicago is a different team at home where they cover the spread 66% of the time. The head to head history also favors a close game. Chicago has won 4 of 7 meetings this year with an average margin of just 0.3 runs. Cleveland has been cold lately, going 3 and 7 in their last 10 games. The model sees a 10.1% edge on the 1.5 run line for the home dog. Even if Schultz gives up a few early, the Guardians' inability to stack runs means the White Sox are almost always within striking distance. It is all about the value. We are betting against a weak offense's ability to cover a multi run spread on the road. The White Sox have the bats to keep this competitive until the final frame.

Public Fade

The public will hammer Cleveland because of the massive pitching mismatch on the stat sheet. They won't look at the fact that Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in baseball and that Chicago covers two out of every three games at home.