MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, August 10, 2026

Analysis

Jacob Lopez is the primary reason we are looking at the Athletics in this spot. His season ERA of 5.64 looks rough on the surface, but his recent form tells a completely different story. He is posting a 2.21 ERA over his last few outings, showing he has found a rhythm that the market hasn't fully adjusted for yet. On the flip side, Freddy Peralta is currently spiraling for the Rays. His recent ERA is a bloated 8.30, which is a massive red flag for a road favorite. While Tampa Bay has the far superior record at 70 and 46, their defense has been leaky. They are allowing 5.5 runs per game on average, which gives a struggling Oakland offense a real chance to produce. The model actually projects Oakland as a slight favorite in its own power rankings, making the 1.5 run cushion feel like a gift. The Athletics only cover the spread 40 percent of the time at home, but this specific pitching matchup creates a unique scenario. If Lopez continues his elite recent run and Peralta fails to find the zone, Oakland could very well win this game outright. We are taking the runs to be safe, but the edge here is undeniable based on the current trajectory of both starters.

Public Fade

The public is hammering Tampa Bay because of their 8 and 2 record over the last 10 games. They see a 70 win team against a 47 win team and assume a blowout, but they are ignoring Peralta's disastrous recent form.

Analysis

This is easily my favorite play on the board for Monday. The model is showing a massive 16.6 percent edge on the Cardinals moneyline, and the pitching stats back it up completely. St. Louis is starting Hunter Dobbins, who has been reliable with a 3.60 ERA. Contrast that with Andrew Painter for the Phillies, who is struggling through a 6.48 ERA this season. Painter has been even worse lately, posting a 8.49 ERA in his most recent starts. Philadelphia is giving up a staggering 6.1 runs per game. It is hard to win consistently when your pitching staff is a sieve, and Painter is the biggest culprit right now. The Cardinals are much tighter defensively, allowing only 4.0 runs per game. St. Louis covers 49 percent of their games at home, while the Phillies only cover 39 percent of the time on the road. The model gives the Cardinals a 68.1 percent win probability, yet the odds are sitting near even money. This is a clear case of the books overvaluing the Phillies' brand name and ignoring the current reality of their starting rotation. Expect the Cardinals to exploit Painter early and often in this matchup. But even if the bats are slow to start, the defensive gap between these two teams should be the deciding factor.

Public Fade

Bettors love the Phillies because of their star power and offensive reputation. They will see the minus 106 line as a bargain for Philly, but they are walking right into a trap given Painter's 8.49 recent ERA.

Analysis

Blade Tidwell has been a bright spot for San Francisco this season. He carries a 3.18 ERA into this game and has shown he can shut down high powered offenses. The Giants as a whole only allow 3.7 runs per game, which is one of the better marks on today's slate. Houston is a formidable opponent with the tenth ranked offense in baseball, but they are sending Hayden Wesneski to the mound. Wesneski is a decent arm with a 3.86 ERA, but he does not have the same shutdown potential as Tidwell right now. The model sees this as a 46.9 percent win probability for the Giants. When a game is essentially a coin flip, getting 1.5 runs at home is a massive advantage. Houston is 7 and 3 in their last 10 games, which will likely draw a lot of public money their way. However, the Giants cover the spread 49 percent of the time at home, and Tidwell is exactly the kind of pitcher who can keep a game close or win it single handedly. And with the Astros' defense ranked 24th in the league, the Giants' offense should find enough holes to keep pace. We are trusting the superior starter and the home field advantage to keep this within the margin.

Public Fade

The public is chasing Houston's recent hot streak and their top ten offense. They are overlooking the fact that Tidwell is a high quality starter who matches up very well against this Astros lineup.