MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, August 16, 2026

Analysis

Pittsburgh is sitting at 60 and 64 but don't let that record fool you today. The model sees a massive 24.9 percent edge on the Pirates +1.5 spread. Lake Bachar is taking the mound for the Pirates and he has been solid lately with a 3.27 ERA over his recent starts. That is a nice improvement over his season average of 3.84. On the other side, Boston is sending Patrick Sandoval to the hill. While Sandoval has a respectable 3.30 ERA, the model actually projects Pittsburgh to win this game outright or keep it extremely close. The model spread is set at Pittsburgh minus zero point four while the books are giving you one point five runs for free. Pittsburgh's offense is currently ranked third in the league. That is a scary unit for any pitcher to face, even one as decent as Sandoval. Boston's defense is second in the league, so it is strength against strength. But when you look at the other side of the ball, Boston's offense is only seventeenth while Pittsburgh's defense has struggled at twenty fourth. The model still likes the Pirates to put up five runs per game here while allowing only three point eight. Getting plus one point five runs at home when the model thinks the Pirates should be favored is the kind of math we love. It is a strong play with eighty three percent confidence.

Public Fade

Most bettors will see the Red Sox record and Sandoval's ERA and hammer the road favorite. They are ignoring the fact that Pittsburgh's offense is elite and Bachar is finding his rhythm at the right time.

Analysis

People love to pick on the White Sox, but the model sees a glaring 24.6 percent edge on Chicago +1.5 in Detroit. Sean Burke is starting for the White Sox and he has been absolutely lights out recently. His season ERA is a respectable 2.99, but his recent form shows a tiny 1.54 ERA. He is dealing right now. Detroit is countering with Drew Anderson, who has also been good with a 2.55 recent ERA, but the White Sox offense is ranked seventh in the league. That is a significant advantage over Detroit's eleventh ranked offense. The White Sox have actually won five of the eight head to head meetings this season. They have outscored Detroit by an average margin of one point zero in those games. The model sets the spread at zero point zero, essentially making this a pick em. Since the books are giving the White Sox one point five runs, we have to take that every single time. Chicago's defense is ranked eighteenth, but their offense is capable of carrying them against a Detroit defense that ranks fourth. Both teams are five and five in their last ten games, so neither has a massive momentum advantage. But the pitching matchup with Burke and the season history suggests the White Sox are the much better side of this bet.

Public Fade

The public generally avoids the White Sox because of their reputation, but this team is 64 and 58. They are a winning ball club with a top ten offense and a red hot starter on the mound.

Analysis

The Athletics are having a rough year at 48 and 74, but they have played the Rangers tough all season. Oakland is actually five for four against Texas in their head to head matchups this year with a positive average scoring margin. The model sees a 20.7 percent edge on Oakland +1.5 today. Jacob Lopez is starting for the A's, and while his season ERA of 5.38 looks ugly, his recent form is much better at 2.40. He has clearly figured something out lately. Texas is starting Cody Bradford, who has been excellent with a 2.38 ERA, but the Rangers offense is struggling. Texas ranks twenty sixth in the league in offense. That is near the bottom of the barrel. Oakland's offense is actually ranked higher at twentieth. The model projects a high scoring game with a total of ten, and it expects Oakland to be right in the thick of it. The model spread is Athletics minus zero point two, meaning it thinks Oakland should actually be a slight favorite here. Getting one point five runs with the A's at home is a gift when the Rangers are struggling to put runs on the board. Oakland only covers thirty nine percent of the time at home, which is why the line is so wide, but the recent pitching improvement from Lopez makes this a different game than the season long stats suggest.

Public Fade

Casual fans will look at Oakland's record and assume they are an automatic fade. They won't notice that Jacob Lopez has a 2.40 ERA lately or that Texas has one of the worst offenses in baseball right now.