MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, August 22, 2026

Analysis

The New York Yankees are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays in a matchup that the model absolutely loves. We are looking at a New York Yankees team that has won four straight games and has recorded six wins in their last ten outings. Ryan Weathers is taking the mound for the home side, and his recent form is nothing short of elite. He is carrying a 0.89 ERA over his recent stretch, which is a massive improvement over his already solid 3.56 season average. On the other side, the Toronto Blue Jays are sending Dylan Cease to the bump. While Cease has a great 2.42 season ERA, he is facing a New York Yankees defense that ranks first in the entire league. The real story here is the discrepancy between these offenses. The Toronto Blue Jays are ranked 29 in the league in scoring. They simply do not have the firepower to keep up if the New York Yankees get any sort of early lead. The New York Yankees are scoring 4.5 runs per game while only allowing 2.6. That is a winning formula. The model has the New York Yankees win probability at 65 percent, giving us a huge 14.3 percent edge on the moneyline at minus 103. It's a rare gift to get a team this good at essentially even money. We are also seeing a 33.3 percent edge on the spread. Trust the defense and the hot hand of Ryan Weathers.

Public Fade

The public is falling in love with Dylan Cease and his shiny 2.42 ERA. They are completely ignoring that the Toronto Blue Jays have the second worst offense in the league and cannot score enough to support him.

Analysis

The Chicago Cubs are making a trip to the Pacific Northwest to face a Seattle Mariners squad that has really struggled to find consistency this year. With a 60 and 68 record, the Seattle Mariners are looking like a team that is ready for the season to end. Their offense is the primary culprit, as they are currently ranked dead last in the majors. It is hard to win games when you are only scoring 3.9 runs per outing. The Chicago Cubs are the complete opposite. They are sitting at 74 and 54 and boast the second best offense in the league. They put up over five runs per game, which gives them a massive cushion. Even though the Seattle Mariners are the favorites here, the model is screaming to take the Chicago Cubs at +1.5. The model spread is set at 0.1, meaning this should be a one run game or a toss up. Getting one and a half runs with a team that has a much better record and a significantly better lineup is an easy choice. David Peterson is on the mound for the Chicago Cubs, and while his season long numbers are high, his recent 2.81 ERA suggests he is locked in. The Seattle Mariners only cover at home 38 percent of the time, which is one of the worst marks in the league. Everything points to the Chicago Cubs keeping this close or winning outright. They're finding ways to win when it matters.

Public Fade

Bettors are looking at David Peterson and his 6.09 season ERA and assuming the Mariners will cruise. They're missing the fact that Peterson has been elite lately and Seattle has the worst offense in baseball.

Analysis

Looking at the late game between the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners, the value remains firmly on the road underdog. The Chicago Cubs have been one of the most reliable teams in the league this year, especially when they are playing away from home where they cover 53 percent of their games. The Seattle Mariners have a 60 and 68 record and their offense has been stuck in neutral for months. They are ranked 30 in the league in offensive production, which is a nightmare matchup against a Chicago Cubs team that ranks 13 in defense. The pitching matchup features Kade Anderson against David Peterson. Anderson has been serviceable with a 4.10 ERA, but he has to navigate a Chicago Cubs lineup that is second in the league in scoring. On the other hand, Peterson has been much better lately than his 6.09 season ERA would indicate. In his most recent starts, he has posted a 2.81 ERA, showing he can suppress runs when he has his command. The model sees a massive 26.5 percent edge on the Chicago Cubs spread at +1.5. With the Seattle Mariners struggling to cover at home, this is a position where we have to fade the public sentiment that favors the home team. The Chicago Cubs are simply the better team from top to bottom. Take the runs and don't look back.

Public Fade

The public is backing the home team because they see a sub 5.00 ERA starter against a 6.00 ERA starter. But the offensive gap between these two teams is wider than the Grand Canyon.