MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, August 28, 2026

Analysis

The White Sox are coming into Minnesota as underdogs but the numbers suggest they should be closer to even money. Chicago has the fifth ranked offense in the league and they are facing Dean Kremer, who has struggled significantly with a 6.50 ERA on the season. Even his recent form of 5.50 is not exactly inspiring confidence. On the other side, Luis Castillo has been shaky lately but he still represents a much higher ceiling than Kremer. The White Sox offense matches up perfectly here against a Twins defense that ranks twenty seven out of thirty teams. That is a bottom tier unit facing a top five scoring machine. Our model sees this as a 0.1 run game, yet we are getting 1.5 runs with the White Sox. Chicago has already taken four of seven from the Twins this season and they have covered the spread in 57 percent of their road games. Minnesota is only 4 and 6 in their last ten outings while the Sox have won two straight. Taking the 1.5 runs feels like the safest play on the board given the offensive mismatch. If Chicago hits like they usually do against bad pitching, they might win this outright. But we will take the insurance. The Twins allow 5.4 runs per game which is a recipe for disaster against this Chicago lineup. It is a clear edge that the public is missing because they see the Twins as a home favorite.

Public Fade

The public is backing the Twins because they are at home and have the better record. They are ignoring that Dean Kremer is a liability and the White Sox have a top five offense that can exploit this Minnesota defense.

Analysis

Houston is favored here but they have been playing some of their worst baseball of the season lately. They are just 3 and 7 over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Mets have been steady, going 6 and 4 in that same stretch. Christian Scott takes the mound for New York and while his recent 5.34 ERA looks a bit high, his season mark of 3.73 is very solid. He is facing a Houston defense that ranks near the bottom of the league at twenty sixth overall. That is a huge factor that the public usually ignores when they see the Astros name on the jersey. Hunter Brown is a tough matchup with a 3.51 ERA, but the model thinks this game is a literal toss up. It projects a spread of 0.1 which makes the 1.5 runs for the Mets look like a massive gift. Houston scores more runs per game, but New York has been much more consistent in keeping games close. The Mets are at home and they have shown they can hang with better teams when Scott is on his game. With Houston struggling to find wins right now, asking them to win by two runs seems like a tall order. We are grabbing the runs and trusting the Mets to stay competitive in a low scoring environment. The Astros lack of defensive consistency is the key here.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see the Astros and assume they will roll over a sub five hundred Mets team. They aren't looking at Houston's 3 and 7 record over the last ten games or their bottom five defensive ranking.

Analysis

This is a classic case of the public betting on the better record and ignoring the pitching matchup. The Phillies are 74 and 60, but they are sending Andrew Painter to the mound with a 6.04 ERA. Compare that to Reid Detmers for the Angels, who has been absolutely dealing lately. Detmers has a 3.62 ERA on the year but has lowered that to a ridiculous 1.86 in his recent starts. He is in peak form right now. The Phillies might have the better offense, but the Angels defense is actually performing better in this specific matchup context. Philadelphia has been on a tear, winning eight of their last ten, but they are a terrible road team for bettors. They have only covered in 39 percent of their games away from home. The Angels cover 53 percent of the time at home. The model actually favors the Angels to win this game by nearly a full run, yet we can get them at +1.5 on the run line. That is a 19.3 percent edge that you just do not see very often. If Detmers continues his current run of dominance, the Angels could win this one comfortably. Painter has been too inconsistent to trust as a road favorite. And the Angels are allowing only 3.3 runs per game when these factors align.

Public Fade

Everyone is jumping on the Phillies because of their 8 and 2 recent record. But they are ignoring that Andrew Painter has a 6.04 ERA and the Phillies are one of the worst road teams in the league against the spread.