MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Analysis

Pittsburgh is the best side on the board, and the model is making that clear with a 26.3% edge on the run line. The Pirates are projected to win by 2.1 runs, while the market is only asking them to win by two. That gap matters because Pittsburgh has the better current form, the stronger offense, and a meaningful starting pitching advantage. Lake Bachar owns a 3.84 ERA for the season and has been even better recently with a 2.47 mark. St. Louis counters with Matthew Liberatore, whose 5.36 ERA has climbed to 7.31 in his recent outings. That's a rough setup for a Cardinals team that already allows 5.5 runs per game. Pittsburgh scores 4.8 per game and faces a St. Louis defense ranked 22nd in the league, while the Pirates offense ranks sixth. The recent numbers point the same way. Pittsburgh is 6 and 4 over its last 10 games, compared with 4 and 6 for St. Louis, and the Pirates have won four straight. Pittsburgh's defense ranks 19th, so this isn't a perfect matchup, but St. Louis ranks only 14th offensively and averages 4.5 runs. The season series is close at 5 and 6, yet the current form and pitching matchup are much better for Pittsburgh. At home, the Pirates cover only 49% of the time, but this price is built around a matchup the model sees as distinctly stronger than the historical trend.

Public Fade

Casual bettors may see the close season series and assume St. Louis can hang around again. But Liberatore's recent 7.31 ERA is the number that matters most here, and Pittsburgh's offense gets the exact matchup it wants against the Cardinals defense.

Analysis

The model isn't buying Baltimore as a legitimate 1.5 run favorite here. Its projected margin is only 0.4 runs, yet the market is charging Toronto a full run and a half. That creates a 19.8% edge on the Blue Jays, even though Baltimore has the slightly better recent form and home record against the number. Baltimore scores 4.4 runs per game and allows 4.1, while Toronto scores 4.0 and allows 3.9. The Blue Jays own the better overall run prevention profile, and their defense ranks 11th compared with Baltimore's 21st ranked defense. That is important because the Orioles offense ranks only 17th, so this isn't an elite attack facing a weak opponent. Toronto's offense ranks 28th, but the low offensive output also makes a one run game more likely than a Baltimore runaway. Baltimore is 5 and 5 over its last 10 games, while Toronto is 4 and 6. The Orioles have won one straight, but the season series is essentially even, with Baltimore holding a 5 and 6 record against Toronto and an average margin of negative 0.1 runs. That is hardly evidence of a major class difference. Baltimore covers 54% at home, yet Toronto has enough defensive stability to stay inside this number. The model's projected spread of negative 0.4 is the key. We're not asking Toronto to win, only to avoid losing by two or more.

Public Fade

The public is likely to see Baltimore at home and lay the extra half run because Toronto's offense ranks 28th. But Baltimore's offense ranks only 17th, and the Blue Jays allow fewer runs per game while owning the better defensive ranking.

Analysis

Chicago is the better team, but the market is asking too much from the Cubs. The model projects a spread of only 0.6 runs, compared with a posted number of 1.5. That gives Miami a 15.2% edge on the run line and makes the Marlins the value side, even with Chicago playing at home. The Cubs have won six of their last 10 and score 5.3 runs per game, the best offensive mark in this matchup. Their offense also ranks first in the league. Still, Miami's defense ranks 15th, and the Marlins allow 4.0 runs per game. That should help prevent Chicago from turning every baserunner into a crooked inning. Miami scores 4.4 runs per game against a Chicago defense ranked 12th, so the Marlins have enough offensive production to remain competitive. The starting pitching does not create a huge gap. Kevin Gausman has a 4.38 ERA, while Ryan Gusto owns a 4.14 ERA and a recent mark of 3.81. That supports the model's view of a closer game than the moneyline suggests. Chicago is 87 and 69, while Miami is 76 and 80, but overall records don't automatically justify laying 1.5 runs. The season series is tied at two games apiece, with Chicago holding an average margin of negative 1.5 runs. Chicago covers only 44% at home, and Miami covers 49% on the road. This is a classic case of backing the underdog's margin rather than pretending the teams are equal.

Public Fade

The public will see Chicago's 87 and 69 record and the league's top ranked offense, then assume the Cubs should win comfortably. But Gausman has a 4.38 ERA, Miami has a respectable 15th ranked defense, and the model sees a margin closer to half a run than two.