MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, October 23, 2026

Analysis

The model is calling for 7.4 runs, while the market is hanging 6.5. That gap is too large to ignore, especially with Milwaukee's offense scoring 5.1 runs per game and Tampa Bay allowing 3.8. The Brewers own the number two offense in baseball, and Tampa Bay's defense ranks sixth, so this isn't a blind over based only on recent results. The matchup still gives Milwaukee plenty of ways to push the game past this number. Jacob Misiorowski has been excellent for Milwaukee, carrying a 1.80 ERA and a 1.27 ERA in his recent stretch. That clearly supports the Brewers side, but it doesn't automatically kill the over. Nick Martinez enters with a 3.10 season ERA and a 4.60 recent ERA, which is the more vulnerable part of this pitching matchup. Tampa Bay's offense averages 4.5 runs per game, and Milwaukee's defense ranks third, so the Rays don't need a huge offensive showing for this total to cash. Milwaukee has won five straight and gone 8 and 2 over its last 10, while Tampa Bay is 5 and 5. Shane McClanahan's absence adds a 0.8 point injury edge toward Milwaukee and removes another key arm from the Rays. The Brewers lead this season series 2 to 1, with an average margin of three runs. Six and a half is simply too low for this setup.

Public Fade

The public may see Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA and assume this game has to stay under. But Martinez's recent 4.60 ERA, Tampa Bay's missing starter, and a model total of 7.4 point in the other direction.