NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, June 13, 2026

Analysis

The Spurs are favorites here but the five and a half points feels like a lot for a matchup this close. San Antonio scores 118 points a game while allowing about 110. The Knicks are right there with them, scoring 117 and allowing only 108.9. This game features two top ten offenses and two top ten defenses. Specifically, the Spurs have the fourth ranked offense facing the fourth ranked defense of New York. On the other end, the Knicks offense sits at eighth and will battle a sixth ranked Spurs defense. These teams are mirror images of each other on the stat sheet. The head to head history this season really favors New York. The Spurs have only won two of seven meetings against the Knicks so far. In those seven games, the average margin has been over five points in favor of New York. Even though the Spurs cover 56 percent of the time at home, the Knicks have been solid enough on the road to keep things interesting. Our model puts the spread closer to four points, which gives us a solid edge on the plus five and a half. We also like the under 216.5 here. Both teams have top tier defenses and we don't expect a lot of track meet action. This should be a physical game where every possession matters. Taking the points with a team that's owned the season series is the smart play.

Public Fade

The public loves the Spurs at home because they have been a covering machine in their own building. Casual bettors see the home court advantage and think San Antonio rolls, but they are ignoring how much trouble the Knicks have caused this specific team all year.