College Basketball Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, November 9, 2026

Analysis

Ohio State is the clear side on the moneyline, even though the price is extremely steep. The Buckeyes are 1 and 1, score 86.0 points per game, and get two days of rest compared with one for Marshall. That extra day matters in a matchup where Ohio State will need to handle an aggressive Thundering Herd offense that averages 84.0 points per game. The matchup is more complicated than the raw records suggest. Ohio State's offense is listed at number 101, while Marshall's defense ranks number 50. That gives the visitors a legitimate chance to make the Buckeyes work for clean looks. But Marshall's defensive data is far more trustworthy than its offensive profile, which is paired with an Ohio State defense ranked number 228. The model's final spread lands at Ohio State by only 3.1 points, a major adjustment from the baseline number of 7.1. That spread caution is exactly why this isn't a recommended point spread play. Still, the model gives Ohio State an 89.8 percent win probability, and home court adds another advantage for the Buckeyes. There is no usable total edge, with the model and line both sitting at 162.5. This is a protection play for parlays or straight moneyline bettors, not a value hunt. Ohio State should survive, but the price leaves no room for mistakes.

Public Fade

The public may see Ohio State's weak defensive ranking and assume Marshall can turn this into an outright upset. That concern is fair against the spread, but the model still gives the Buckeyes an 89.8 percent win probability, and the rest edge supports the home team.

Analysis

This is the best pure betting opportunity on the board. Indiana is undefeated at 2 and 0, unbeaten Syracuse is also 2 and 0, and yet the market is asking the Orange to stay within 5.5 points on the road. The model makes Indiana a 3.7 point favorite, creating an 8.8 percent edge on Syracuse plus 5.5. Indiana has the better offensive number in the supplied matchup data, ranking number 64 compared with Syracuse at number 88. The Hoosiers also average 91.5 points per game, while Syracuse scores 88.0. But the defensive gap runs in the other direction. Syracuse allows only 53.5 points per game, compared with 63.0 for Indiana. Syracuse's defense ranks number 139, while Indiana's defense is number 166. That gives the Orange a real path to controlling the margin even if Indiana wins. The baseline spread had Indiana favored by 3.8, and the final model number moves only slightly to 3.7. That consistency matters. The line has inflated the favorite beyond what the model supports, likely because Indiana is at home and bringing the flashier scoring average. Home court is meaningful in college basketball, but it doesn't erase the defensive advantage Syracuse has shown through two games. The total is a pass at 147.5 because the model agrees with the market. The spread is where the value sits. Take the points.

Public Fade

Casual bettors are likely backing the undefeated home team because Indiana scores 91.5 points per game and has the stronger offensive ranking. But Syracuse is allowing only 53.5 points per game, and the model sees Indiana winning by fewer than four points, not more than five.