College Basketball Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, November 12, 2026

Analysis

Penn State is 2 and 1, and the model projects the Nittany Lions to win by 25.8 points. That is a meaningful jump from the baseline spread of 19.8, which already leaned heavily toward the home team. The adjustment tells us the matchup itself is doing most of the work here. Penn State scores 90.0 points per game, while Mercyhurst averages only 62.7. That gap of 27.3 points in offensive production is difficult to overcome, especially when Mercyhurst also allows 80.5 points per game. The rankings tell the same story. Penn State's offense ranks 63rd, facing a Mercyhurst defense ranked 214th. On the other side, the Lakers bring the 288th ranked offense into a matchup with a Penn State defense ranked 199th. The Nittany Lions don't need an elite defensive showing to control this game. They simply need to avoid giving away easy possessions while their offense creates separation. The total is posted at 148.5, exactly where the model lands, so there isn't a number based case for either side of that market. The moneyline is expensive, and the model's win probability of 97.4% still produces a negative edge at the listed price. Still, with a 76 confidence rating and a projected margin above 25 points, Penn State is the clear side.

Public Fade

Casual bettors may avoid Penn State because laying a huge price feels uncomfortable. That instinct misses the matchup gap, as Mercyhurst ranks 288th on offense and allows 80.5 points per game.

Analysis

Indiana is 3 and 0, and the model makes the Hoosiers a 27.2 point favorite at home. That projection is notably stronger than the baseline spread of 22.5, even though the market already lists Indiana at 25.5. The home court matters here, but the larger issue is the collision between Indiana's offense and Tennessee Tech's defense. Indiana scores 88.7 points per game, while the Golden Eagles allow 106.0. Tennessee Tech's offense is dangerous on paper, averaging 100.7 points and ranking 16th. But that strength runs directly into an Indiana defense ranked 160th, while Indiana's 75th ranked offense gets a much softer matchup against a Tennessee Tech defense ranked 311th. The model clearly believes the Golden Eagles' scoring numbers are being inflated by a defense that has struggled badly to get stops. Indiana should be able to create efficient looks throughout the game and force Tennessee Tech to chase from behind. The total is 169.5, matching the model exactly, so the scoring market offers no measurable edge. The moneyline price is even steeper than Penn State's, and the listed price carries a negative edge despite Indiana's 98.3% projected win probability. That makes this more of a confidence side than a value price. Still, the model gives Indiana an 81 confidence rating, the highest of these two plays, and projects enough separation to make the Hoosiers the stronger favorite.

Public Fade

The public may be tempted by Tennessee Tech's 100.7 points per game and 16th ranked offense. But those numbers don't erase a defense allowing 106.0 points, especially against an Indiana team projected to win by 27.2.