NFL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, September 17, 2026

Analysis

The model is showing a straightforward value play on Detroit. Buffalo is listed as a 5.5 point favorite, but the model spread is only 4.6. That difference matters. We’re not being asked to pick the Lions outright. We’re asking Detroit to keep the game within a number that sits nearly a point above the model’s expected margin. The early scoring data is completely even. Both teams are 0 and 0, and both are averaging 22.0 points per game. Both defenses are also allowing 0.0 points per game in the available sample, so there’s no evidence here that Buffalo deserves to be priced as a much stronger team than Detroit. The total is set at 54.5, matching the model exactly, which means the edge isn’t coming from a hidden opinion on the game environment. It’s coming from the spread itself. Buffalo’s moneyline win probability is 73.5 percent, and the model only gives that play a 2.5 percent edge. That supports the idea that the Bills can win, but it doesn’t mean they’re the right side at 5.5 points. Detroit has the better betting position because the market is demanding more separation than the model expects. Take the points. Buffalo can win this game, but Detroit is the sharper side against the number.

Public Fade

The public will naturally gravitate toward Buffalo as the favorite, especially with the Bills priced at home and carrying a 73.5 percent model win probability. But that narrative skips the key detail: Buffalo is being asked to win by 5.5, while the model projects a 4.6 point margin. The Lions don’t need to win to cash this ticket.