NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, April 26, 2026

Analysis

Model sees this spread at 1.3, close enough to the book's 1.5 line that Anaheim plus 1.5 carries a clean 6.5% edge. Ducks score 3.2 a game but give up 3.5, while Oilers put up 3.4 and allow 3.2. That's a tight matchup on paper. But dig deeper. Anaheim's offense ranks 12th against Edmonton's 26th ranked defense. Flip it, and Edmonton's top six offense faces the league worst defense at 30th. Special teams tilt Edmonton's way a bit, with their power play clicking at 30.6% against Anaheim's shaky 76.4% penalty kill for about 0.81 goals per game. Ducks power play manages just 0.61 against Edmonton's 77.8% kill. Injuries swing this hard to Anaheim. They're missing just Jansen Harkins up the middle. Edmonton? Andrew Mangiapane, Adam Henrique, and Max Jones all out. That's a net injury edge of 1.6 points toward the Ducks. Head to head this season splits 2-2 with a tiny 0.5 average margin. ATS, Anaheim covers 41% at home, Edmonton 56% on road, but model doesn't care about trends when edges pop like this. Confidence sits at 73%. Public might chase McDavid, but Ducks keep it within one.

Public Fade

Everyone's piling on Edmonton ML at -140 because of McDavid and Draisaitl. They ignore the three key forwards out and Anaheim's decent offense versus that soft 26th ranked defense. Model says it's closer than books think.

Analysis

Colorado owns a 3.6% edge laying 1.5 here, with model at 1.3 spread versus the line. Books have it 85% at 1.5, model 15% at 0.4. Kings score 2.7, allow 2.9. Avs? 3.6 scored, 2.4 allowed. Massive gap. LA offense ranks 28th against Colorado's elite third ranked defense. Avalanche first ranked offense blasts LA's ninth ranked unit. Special teams barely move the needle. Kings power play at 17% versus Avs 84.6% kill for 0.49 goals. Colorado gets 0.64 on LA's 74.6% kill. Head to head? Kings 0-4 this season, down 1.5 average. Avs on a three win streak, road dogs covering 63% while LA manages 21% at home. Injuries favor Kings slightly with net 0.8 points, but Colorado missing just Josh Manson on D. Confidence hits 80%. Avs roll by two or more.

Public Fade

Public loves fading the Avs on the road against physical Kings. But zero and four head to head says otherwise, and that top ranked offense tears through LA's middling defense. Model doesn't lie.

Analysis

Tampa Bay grabs a sharp 3.4% edge on the moneyline with 46.6% win probability. Spread model's at 1.3, but we pass that slim 0.4% edge and hammer ML. Montreal scores 3.4, allows 3.1. Lightning 3.5 scored, 2.8 allowed. Offenses elite, defenses solid. Habs seventh ranked attack meets Tampa's fifth ranked defense. Bolts fourth ranked offense loves Montreal's 18th ranked unit. Power plays even out around 0.61 to 0.64 goals each way. Head to head favors Montreal 3-1 with 0.5 average margin, but model overrides that. ATS weak for Tampa on road at 32%, Habs 44% home, yet edges prevail. Injuries minor with Noah Dobson out for MTL and Pontus Holmberg for TBL. Highest confidence here at 84%. Lightning win outright.

Public Fade

Bettors buy Montreal at home after owning head to head 3-1. They overlook Tampa's superior offense ranking and tighter defense. Public wrong again on this ML.