NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, May 8, 2026

Analysis

Buffalo's a solid 50-23 squad, but Montréal at 48-24 keeps this closer than the line suggests. Model spits out a -0.6 spread, way softer than the books' -1.5. That's your 6.1% edge on MTL +1.5. Buffalo scores 3.5 a game and allows 2.9, while Montréal puts up 3.4 but gives up 3.1. Matchups tilt even: Buffalo's fifth ranked offense meets Montréal's 18th defense, and Montréal's seventh offense faces Buffalo's 12th ranked unit. Injuries help Montréal too. Buffalo's without Noah Ostlund at center, handing Montréal a 1.2 point net injury edge. Head to head, Buffalo's 3-1 this season, but margins averaged just one goal. ATS? Buffalo covers only 39% at home. Montréal? 67% on the road. Model digs deeper: 85% of books at -1.5, but model's 15% slice sits at -0.4. That's value on the dog. But the moneyline leans Buffalo at -140 with 55.8% win prob. Still, +1.5 is the play. Public overlooks road cover trends. Sharp.

Public Fade

Everyone's piling on Buffalo at home with their record. They ignore Montréal's road ATS dominance at 67%. And those tiny H2H margins? Books overhype the favorite.

Analysis

Vegas rolls into Anaheim as road dogs, but my model gives them 47.1% win probability for a clean 4.1% edge at -114. Spread model's +2 versus the -1.5 line screams value too, but ML's the strong rec. Anaheim's 43-33, Vegas 39-26, yet scoring's even: both at 3.2 per game. Anaheim coughs up 3.5, Vegas tighter at 3.0 allowed. Matchups favor Vegas big. Anaheim's 12th offense hits Vegas' 13th defense. Vegas' 13th offense feasts on Anaheim's dead last 30th defense. Special teams edge: Anaheim's PP at 18.6% versus Vegas PK 81.4% means about 0.56 goals. Flip it, Vegas 24.6% PP against Anaheim's weak 76.4% PK projects 0.72 goals. H2H Anaheim's 3-1, margins slim at 0.5. ATS even, Anaheim 46% home, Vegas 48% road. Model spread 1.3, books heavy at 1.5 with model lighter at zero. Recent form? Vegas on a three win streak. Anaheim's vulnerable backend gets exposed. 83% confidence here. Lock it.

Public Fade

Folks love Anaheim at home with that H2H edge. They forget Vegas' superior allowed goals and special teams mismatch. Public sleeps on the 30th ranked Ducks defense.