Serie A Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 17, 2026

Analysis

Atalanta enter this one sitting at 15 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses. They average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 allowed per game. Bologna sit at 15 wins, 14 draws, and 7 losses with 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 allowed. The model sees Atalanta favored by 0.8 goals and the line sits at minus 0.75. That gives us a 4.1 percent edge on the spread and a 14.6 percent edge on the moneyline. Atalanta rank seventh in offense against Bologna ninth ranked defense. Bologna rank eighth in offense against Atalanta sixth ranked defense. The head to head this season already shows Atalanta winning by an average margin of two goals. Atalanta have the better attack and a stronger defense in this matchup. The model likes them to win outright and the price at minus 135 feels fair. Public money might be splitting between the sides but the numbers say Atalanta should handle this one comfortably.

Public Fade

The public sees Bologna as a tough road side that does not lose often. They forget Atalanta have already beaten them this season by two goals and Atalanta play much better at home. The model spread lands at minus 0.8 while the line sits at minus 0.75. That is small aber the moneyline edge tells us Atalanta are undervalued here.

Analysis

Sassuolo come in at 14 wins, 15 draws, and 7 losses. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 allowed per game. Lecce sit at 8 wins, 20 draws, and 8 losses with only 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 allowed. The model sees Sassuolo favored by 0.3 goals but the line sits at zero. That 13.7 percent edge on the spread is one of the stärksten of the day. Sassuolo offense ranks tenth against Lecce fourteenth ranked defense. Lecce offense ranks nineteenth against Sassuolo eleventh ranked defense. Lecce have been poor on the road and Sassuolo should be able to control this game. The model sees a draw as likely but Sassuolo still look like the better side. The spread at zero gives us a clean entry point to back them. Public money may be coming in on Lecce because they have more wins but the form and offensive numbers tell a different story.

Public Fade

The public sees Lecce as a gritty side that can grind out points. They forget Lecce score just 0.7 goals per game and have been terrible on the road. The model spread lands at minus 0.3 while the line sits at zero. That gives us a 13.7 percent edge on Sassuolo plus zero. Sassuolo are the better bet here.

Analysis

Internazionale enter this one at 27 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. They average 2.4 goals scored and 0.9 allowed per game. Hellas Verona sit at 3 wins, 22 draws, and 11 losses with 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 allowed. The model sees Internazionale favored by 1.4 goals and the line sits at minus 1.25. That 12.8 percent edge on the moneyline is big. Internazionale rank first in offense against Hellas Verona eighteenth ranked defense. Hellas Verona rank twentieth in offense against Internazionale fourth ranked defense. The head to head this season shows Internazionale winning by an average margin of one goal. Internazionale have the dominant attack and a strong defense. The model likes them to win outright and the price at minus 280 feels fair. The draw is possible but unlikely given the numbers. Public money might be coming in on the spread but the moneyline edge shows Internazionale are undervalued here.

Public Fade

The public sees Hellas Verona as a side that can steal a draw or even a point. They forget Hellas Verona score only 0.7 goals per game and have been poor on the road. The model spread lands at minus 1.4 while the line sits at minus 1.25. That gives us a 12.8 percent edge on Internazionale moneyline. Internazionale are the better bet here.