UFC Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, June 20, 2026 — UFC Fight Night

Analysis

Levan Chokheli enters this welterweight bout with a professional record of 14 wins and 3 losses. He is set to face Leon Shahbazyan, who brings a 12 and 4 record into the octagon. One of the key physical factors in this matchup is the reach. Shahbazyan holds a slight one inch advantage with a 74 inch reach compared to 73 inches for Chokheli. While the market is treating Chokheli as a massive favorite at minus 355, our model sees a much more competitive fight. We have Chokheli winning this bout 52.3 percent of the time. This creates a massive opportunity because the recommended bet is at plus 310. That is a huge 27.9 percent edge over the implied probability of the odds. The model is leaning toward this fight going the full three rounds. It predicts a decision victory for Chokheli with 50 percent confidence. We expect the fight to last about 2.4 rounds on average, with a 46 percent chance that it goes to the judges' scorecards. Chokheli has shown the ability to control where the fight takes place, and his 14 wins suggest he knows how to close the deal. The public is likely looking at the minus 355 price and assuming Chokheli is a lock, but the value is actually in the plus 310 price point our model identified. We are backing the fighter with the higher win probability at a price that treats him like a significant underdog. This is the kind of mathematical discrepancy that sharp bettors live for. Trust the 68 percent confidence level and grab the value on Chokheli.

Public Fade

The public is looking at the minus 355 price and assuming this is a done deal. They are ignoring the statistical reality that this is a much closer fight, and they are paying a massive premium for a favorite that is not as safe as the odds suggest.

Analysis

Michael Aswell carries an 11 and 4 record into this featherweight prelim against Gaston Bolaños. Both men are identical in the reach department at 69 inches, so neither fighter will have an easy time keeping the other at the end of their punches. The betting market has Aswell as a heavy favorite at minus 395, but the data tells a completely different story. Our model has this fight as a virtual toss up. Aswell has a win probability of 49.8 percent, while Bolaños sits at 50.2 percent. When the odds are this wide for a fight that is essentially a 50 50 proposition, the value on the plus 325 moneyline is astronomical. This gives us a 26.3 percent edge against the market price. The model is extremely confident in its assessment here with an 87 percent confidence rating. It does not expect this one to go to the judges. There is a 49 percent chance of a knockout or technical knockout, and the expected duration is only 2.2 rounds. Only 38 percent of the simulations show this fight going the distance. Bolaños is a dangerous striker, and Aswell will need to be careful in the pocket. But since the model sees Aswell winning nearly half the time, getting him at plus 325 is a gift. The public is likely blinded by the minus 395 market price, assuming Aswell is a safe bet. We are fading that noise and taking the massive price on a fighter the model views as an equal competitor in this matchup.

Public Fade

Casual bettors are flocking to Aswell as a parlay anchor because of the minus 395 line. They are completely overlooking the finishing potential of Bolaños and the fact that the statistical win probabilities are nearly dead even.

Analysis

Murtazali Magomedov is looking to protect his perfect record on the main card this weekend. He stands at 10 wins and 0 losses and faces a tough test in Melsik Baghdasaryan, who is 8 and 3. Both featherweights possess a 70 inch reach, so the physical dimensions are perfectly mirrored. The market has Magomedov as a significant favorite at minus 325, but our model suggests that price is inflated. We have Magomedov winning 53.6 percent of the time. By getting him at a plus 265 price point, we are looking at a 26.2 percent edge. Undefeated fighters often carry a hype tax, but in this specific case, the model found a price that actually provides a huge cushion for the bettor. This fight is expected to be a technical affair. The model predicts a decision win for Magomedov with 50 percent confidence. It sees the fight lasting 2.4 rounds on average, with a 46 percent chance of it going to the distance. Magomedov has the grappling and pressure to keep Baghdasaryan on his heels, but he will need to stay disciplined for all fifteen minutes. The public is likely backing Magomedov because of the undefeated record, but they are doing it at a minus 325 price that offers no value. We are taking the same fighter but at a much more favorable plus 265 price. With a 68 percent confidence level from the model, this is one of the strongest plays on the entire fourteen fight card.

Public Fade

The public loves an undefeated record and is willing to pay minus 325 to back it. We are using the model to identify a much better entry point at plus 265, letting the public take the bad price while we grab the value.