2026 NL MVP Finalists: Crow-Armstrong's 40-40 Case vs. Ohtani

Pete Crow-Armstrong led all of Major League Baseball with 10.6 fWAR this season, a full 3.6 wins clear of Bobby Witt Jr.'s AL-best mark, and on Monday the BBWAA made it official: he's one of three finalists for the 2026 NL MVP Award. He's joined on the ballot by Shohei Ohtani and Brice Turang, confirmed by MLB.com on Nov. 3. The winner gets revealed Nov. 12 at 6 p.m. CT on MLB Network, the same broadcast window as the AL race.

Unlike the lopsided AL side, where Yordan Alvarez is a near-lock, this field pairs a genuine 40-40 season against an Ohtani résumé with real MVP pedigree. That tension is what makes it the more interesting of the two awards this cycle.

NL MVP Odds 2026: Crow-Armstrong's Case

Crow-Armstrong's full line, per MLB.com's finalist release: .280/.372/.570, a .942 OPS and a 157 wRC+, with an MLB-high 357 total bases, 119 runs scored and 84 extra-base hits. He hit 45 home runs, tied with Kyle Schwarber for the major league lead, and stole 41 bases, the most in the National League.

That combination made him the seventh player in MLB history to clear 40 homers and 40 steals in the same season. He backed the power-speed profile with a Gold Glove-caliber center field, his second career Gold Glove, posting +26 fielding run value (the most of any position player in baseball) and +26 outs above average. Add 107 RBIs and 83 walks, and the 10.6 fWAR itself, the best mark in either league and 3.6 wins clear of AL leader Bobby Witt Jr.'s 7.0, is the number carrying his case.

Crow-Armstrong said the season let him "appreciate the year as it was going on," calling that a first for him. Cubs manager Craig Counsell put it more simply back in September: "And you're grateful that the fans get to see a season like this."

Ohtani and Turang: The Rest of the Field

Ohtani's finalist nod comes despite a banged-up year by his own standard, the framing MLB.com used in its own writeup of his nomination. Voters rarely bet against his track record outright, but a down (for him) season against Crow-Armstrong's historic two-way defensive-and-power case is why this field isn't a formality the way the AL side is.

Brice Turang rounds out the Milwaukee angle on this ballot. The Brewers also placed Pat Murphy among the NL Manager of the Year finalists, confirmed by the same MLB.com release, giving the franchise two names on this year's BBWAA slate. That kind of dual placement tends to help a down-ballot finalist's media narrative even when it doesn't move the actual vote.

Betting Impact: The Market Isn't Close

A Polymarket reading cited in Yahoo Sports' Nov. 3 finalist roundup, timestamped 8:49 a.m. ET that morning, had Crow-Armstrong priced at roughly 99 percent to win the NL award, with Ohtani around 2 percent. Turang carried no meaningful market price at all as of that read. That's a prediction market, not a traditional sportsbook moneyline, but a gap that wide tells you the field is settled in practice even if the ballot isn't.

For DFS and awards-futures purposes, that leaves almost no value in picking the winner outright. The actual betting-relevant question is secondary: does Ohtani's name recognition pull enough down-ballot support to matter for the "best player in baseball" branding props that tend to follow MVP season, separate from who actually wins the award. Compare that to the AL side, where StatSniper's own AL MVP finalists breakdown has Yordan Alvarez sitting at a similarly lopsided 96 to 97 percent over Junior Caminero and Bobby Witt Jr.

Crow-Armstrong's 10.6 WAR is the best mark in either league this season, not just the NL. That's the single stat that should end any argument about whether this field has real suspense in it, even though neither Ohtani's nor Turang's full-season WAR appears in the finalist release.

MLB also added a new Relief Pitcher of the Year award this cycle, with winners set for Nov. 11 alongside the Cy Young announcement, the clearest sign yet that BBWAA week keeps expanding rather than shrinking. That gives bettors and prop builders one more awards-adjacent market to track between now and Nov. 12 even though neither league's reliever race touches this MVP field directly.

What to Watch Next

MLB Network's Nov. 12 window, starting 6 p.m. CT, settles both MVP awards back to back, with the Rookie of the Year reveal on Nov. 9, Manager of the Year on Nov. 10 and Cy Young on Nov. 11 bridging the week between now and then. Watch for a sportsbook to actually post a traditional moneyline on this race, rather than relying on Polymarket's implied pricing, once the award gets closer. For the parallel race, see StatSniper's AL MVP finalists tracker, and check the MLB daily picks page as award-week props open up. Chad AI tracks every MLB market inside the app, and the Chad hub updates as new boards go live ahead of Nov. 12.

FAQ

Who are the 2026 NL MVP finalists? Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs), Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) and Brice Turang (Brewers), confirmed by MLB.com on Nov. 3.

What is Pete Crow-Armstrong's case for NL MVP? An MLB-leading 10.6 fWAR, a 40 home run/40 steal season (45 HR, 41 SB), a .942 OPS, a Gold Glove-caliber center field with +26 outs above average, and the best all-around season in either league this year.

Did Pete Crow-Armstrong win a Gold Glove? Yes, his second career Gold Glove, awarded alongside the NL MVP finalist nod.

When is the NL MVP winner announced? MLB Network reveals the winner Nov. 12 starting at 6 p.m. CT, the same window as the AL MVP announcement.

---

*21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Stat Sniper provides data and projections for informational purposes; you are responsible for your own wagers.*