NBA Coach of the Year Odds 2026-27: Nurse, Rajakovic at +900
NBA Coach of the Year odds 2026-27: Nick Nurse and Darko Rajakovic are +900 co-favorites at BetMGM. The top of the board, voting trends and the value spots.
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Philadelphia's Nick Nurse and Toronto's Darko Rajakovic open as co-favorites in the NBA Coach of the Year odds at +900 each, per BetMGM's board published Sept. 23. That price carries a 10% implied probability. Minnesota's Chris Finch, Orlando's Sean Sweeney and Miami's Erik Spoelstra sit one step back at +1000, with Utah's Will Hardy at +1100.
Both favorites' teams made blockbuster trades, per BetMGM: Philadelphia added Jaylen Brown and Toronto landed Kawhi Leonard. BetMGM adds that voters gravitate toward coaches whose teams outperform expectations, and rarely look outside the top seeds.
NBA Coach of the Year Odds 2026-27: The Board
The table below pairs BetMGM's Sept. 23 prices with DraftKings' prices as of Aug. 9, as listed by Sportsbook Review. These are two different books on two different dates, so treat the gaps as shopping opportunities, not line movement. Win totals are BetMGM's, also published Sept. 23.
| Coach | Team | Per BetMGM, Sept. 23 | DraftKings via SBR, Aug. 9 | BetMGM win total | |-|-|-|-|-| | Nick Nurse | 76ers | +900 | +1000 | 50.5 | | Darko Rajakovic | Raptors | +900 | +800 | 45.5 | | Chris Finch | Timberwolves | +1000 | +1200 | 48.5 | | Sean Sweeney | Magic | +1000 | +1800 | 43.5 | | Erik Spoelstra | Heat | +1000 | +1200 | 46.5 | | Will Hardy | Jazz | +1100 | +1000 | 37.5 | | Micah Nori | Trail Blazers | +1400 | +1400 | 42.5 | | Dusty May | Mavericks | +1600 | +1500 | 34.5 | | Ime Udoka | Rockets | +1600 | +2500 | 47.5 | | Rick Carlisle | Pacers | +1600 | +2500 | 44.5 | | Joe Mazzulla | Celtics | +3500 | +3500 | 51.5 | | J.B. Bickerstaff | Pistons | +4000 | +3000 | 49.5 |
Implied probability is 100 divided by (odds plus 100). Per BetMGM's prices, the co-favorites each work out to 10%, the +1000 trio to about 9.1% apiece and Hardy to about 8.3%. Those top six add up to roughly 55.6%, a wide-open market. Rajakovic's +800 at DraftKings, via Sportsbook Review, implied about 11.1%.
Within DraftKings itself, the board did shift between its July 16 opening prices and Aug. 9, per Sportsbook Review: Nurse shortened from +1200 to +1000, while Spoelstra drifted from +1000 to +1200.
What Wins Coach of the Year
Joe Mazzulla's 2025-26 award is the template. Per BetMGM, Boston's preseason win total sat at 41.5 with Jayson Tatum out after an Achilles injury, and the Celtics won 56 games and claimed the No. 2 seed in the East. That is 14.5 wins over the number. Mazzulla collected 392 voting points and 62 first-place votes.
J.B. Bickerstaff finished second with 312 points and 29 first-place votes after Detroit won 60 games against a preseason total of 46.5.
The longer trend favors top seeds. Per BetMGM, winners since 2010-11 have averaged the 1.7 seed, 10 of the last 16 winners claimed the No. 1 seed, and no winner finished lower than fourth. The average winner beat his team's preseason win total by 12.5 games. BetMGM sums up the profile as a team with a win total in the 40s that lands a top-two seed.
Sportsbook Review's table of recent winners, using Covers' odds history, shows Mazzulla and Kenny Atkinson both won from +2500, and Mike Brown (2022-23) and Tom Thibodeau (2020-21) won from +8000. Of the 11 winners in that table, only Mark Daigneault (+700) and Steve Kerr (+575) were shorter than +1000 before the season.
The Top Contenders
Nick Nurse, 76ers (+900). Nurse already owns one Coach of the Year, from 2019-20 in Toronto, per BetMGM's winners list. The problem is the profile. Philadelphia's 50.5 win total is above the 40s band, and adding the 12.5-game average overshoot to it would mean roughly 63 wins.
Darko Rajakovic, Raptors (+900). Per BetMGM, Toronto's win total is 45.5, squarely inside the profile. If Leonard helps push the Raptors into a top-two seed, Rajakovic has the expectations gap that won the award last spring. He was the outright favorite at DraftKings on Aug. 9, per Sportsbook Review.
Sean Sweeney, Magic (+1000). Orlando's 43.5 total is the lowest among the +1000 tier. Sweeney was +1800 at DraftKings on Aug. 9, per Sportsbook Review, so shop his price before taking BetMGM's number.
Erik Spoelstra, Heat, and Chris Finch, Timberwolves (+1000). Per BetMGM, Miami's total is 46.5 and Minnesota's is 48.5, both inside the band. BetMGM's Shane Thurston argues the West will be hard to stand out in, with Oklahoma City and San Antonio well clear of the field. BetMGM's win totals agree: the Thunder are at 62.5 and the Spurs at 59.5.
Betting Angles and Value
Thurston expects an Eastern Conference coach to win, and his pick is Rick Carlisle at +1600 (about 5.9% implied). His case, per BetMGM: the Pacers won 19 games last year, and with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton they are due for a bounce-back. Indiana's 44.5 total fits the profile, and the 12.5-game average would put an award-caliber Pacers season near 57 wins. Carlisle was +2500 at DraftKings in August, per Sportsbook Review's Aug. 9 board.
The win total filter is the cleanest one. Rajakovic, Sweeney, Spoelstra and Carlisle all coach teams with win totals in the 40s, matching the profile laid out per BetMGM's history. Our NBA win totals breakdown covers the over/under case for each of these teams.
A small split across two or three of those coaches is a reasonable way to play the NBA Coach of the Year odds. For nightly reads once games count, see StatSniper's AI sports picks hub and the daily NBA picks page.
What to Watch Next
The season tips off Tuesday, Oct. 20, and that night the defending champion Knicks host the 76ers, per the NBA's official 2026-27 schedule release. The regular season ends Sunday, April 11, 2027. Sportsbook Review notes last season's award was announced May 26, so expect a similar window.
Watch the standings through the first quarter of the season. Per BetMGM, 10 of the last 16 winners claimed the No. 1 seed, so early seeding is worth tracking. Chad tracks futures markets alongside nightly game picks inside the StatSniper app.
FAQ
Who is favored to win NBA Coach of the Year in 2026-27? Nick Nurse of the 76ers and Darko Rajakovic of the Raptors are co-favorites at +900 at BetMGM as of Sept. 23. DraftKings had Rajakovic as the outright favorite at +800 on Aug. 9, per Sportsbook Review.
Who won NBA Coach of the Year last season? Joe Mazzulla of the Celtics won for 2025-26 with 392 voting points and 62 first-place votes. Boston won 56 games against a preseason win total of 41.5, per BetMGM.
What seed does the Coach of the Year usually come from? Per BetMGM, winners since 2010-11 have averaged the 1.7 seed, 10 of the last 16 claimed the No. 1 seed, and none finished lower than fourth.
Is there a long shot worth betting for Coach of the Year? Per BetMGM, Shane Thurston picks Rick Carlisle at +1600, citing a healthy Tyrese Haliburton and a bounce-back from the Pacers' 19-win season.
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About the Author
Chad
Chad is the AI sports betting assistant and analyst behind every Stat Sniper daily pick. He processes thousands of real sports data points including injury reports, line movements, historical matchups, W/L records, game and player props, and public betting trends across every major sportsbook to surface the highest-edge plays each day. Explore his free daily NBA picks and predictions, or tail Chad's action inside the Stat Sniper: AI sports betting app. Download for free.
For the model behind this week's board, read Chad's AI NBA predictions.
