NBA Cup Odds 2026: Thunder +290, Spurs +425 Before Group Play

Oklahoma City is +290 and San Antonio is +425 in the 2026 NBA Cup odds, per DraftKings via ESPN's futures feed on Oct. 13. Those two prices convert to roughly 25.6% and 19.0% implied, which adds up to about 44.7% of raw implied probability, before the book's margin is removed, on two Western Conference teams. Group play opens Oct. 30, so this board has about two and a half weeks to move.

NBA Cup Odds 2026: The Full Board

Here are the top of the NBA Cup winner market per DraftKings via ESPN, Oct. 13. Implied probability is our own arithmetic from the American odds and still includes the book's margin.

Oklahoma City Thunder: +290 (25.6% implied)

San Antonio Spurs: +425 (19.0% implied)

Boston Celtics: +1000 (9.1% implied)

Philadelphia 76ers: +1200 (7.7% implied)

Detroit Pistons: +1300 (7.1% implied)

New York Knicks: +1400 (6.7% implied)

Denver Nuggets: +1600 (5.9% implied)

Minnesota Timberwolves: +2000 (4.8% implied)

Toronto Raptors: +2000 (4.8% implied)

Orlando Magic: +2500 (3.8% implied)

Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers: +2800 (3.4% each implied)

Cleveland Cavaliers: +3000 (3.2% implied)

The tail runs long. The Bucks, Nets and Kings are all +100000 on the same board, and the Chicago Bulls are +30000. Add up the implied probabilities for all 30 teams and you get about 125.0%, so the board carries about 25 points of margin over 100%.

How the NBA Cup Works (and Why It Shapes the Price)

All 30 teams were randomly drawn into groups of five inside their conference, using pots built from 2025-26 records, per the NBA's Cup explainer. Each team plays the other four in its group once, two at home and two on the road. Group play runs on Cup Nights every Friday from Oct. 30 through Nov. 27, plus Tuesday, Nov. 24 and Wednesday, Nov. 25.

Eight teams advance: the six group winners plus one wild card per conference, which is the second-place team with the best record in group play games. Group tiebreakers go head-to-head record, point differential, total points scored, 2025-26 record, then a random drawing, per the NBA. Overtime is excluded from the point differential and points tiebreakers.

The knockout rounds are single elimination. The NBA lists the semifinals for Dec. 8 and/or 9 and the championship for Dec. 11. The NBA says the championship is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, and that quarterfinal and semifinal games are played at the higher seed's arena. Group play, the quarterfinals and the semifinals count toward the 82-game regular season. The championship does not.

A team advances by finishing first in its group or by taking its conference's wild card, and then has to win three single-elimination games in a row to lift the trophy.

Group Winner Prices

ESPN's feed carries group winner prices for three of the six groups, per DraftKings via ESPN, Oct. 13. The group membership below comes from the NBA's draw.

West Group B: Thunder -200, Timberwolves +330, Clippers +1100, Grizzlies +1400, Pelicans +1700

West Group A: Nuggets +175, Rockets +240, Suns +400, Jazz +600, Mavericks +800

East Group C: Celtics +135, Hawks +300, Hornets +400, Wizards +550, Bulls +1300

The Thunder at -200 imply about 66.7% to win their group. Their +290 Cup price at 25.6% is then a rough read that they win the group about two-thirds of the time and then clear three knockout games roughly 38% of the time on that path. That is our own back-of-envelope arithmetic and ignores the wild card route.

At +175 for West Group A, the Nuggets imply about 36.4% to win their group, while their +1600 Cup price implies 5.9% (our own arithmetic). Houston is +240 in the same group and +2800 for the Cup.

Boston's East Group C price of +135 implies about 42.6%, against 9.1% for its +1000 Cup price (our own arithmetic). The Hawks are +300 and the Hornets +400 in that group, and Atlanta is +2800 for the Cup.

The Spurs sit in West Group C with the Warriors, Lakers, Trail Blazers and Kings. ESPN's feed does not carry a group winner price for that group or for East Group A or B, so check the books directly for those groups. The Knicks (+1400) share East Group B with the 76ers (+1200), Cavaliers, Heat and Pacers.

What the Board Does Not Show

A group winner price and a Cup winner price are separate markets. A group winner at -200 and a Cup winner at +290 describe different outcomes, and the second also depends on three single-elimination games.

The wild card also sits outside the group winner prices. It goes to the team in each conference with the best group play record among second-place finishers, per the NBA, and the NBA's tiebreakers for wild card ties skip the head-to-head step.

Group play results also count in the regular-season standings, per the NBA, so Cup Nights are part of every team's 82-game schedule.

What to Watch Next

The first date is Oct. 30. ESPN's scoreboard for that day lists 10 group play games: Charlotte at Washington, Chicago at Boston, Detroit at Brooklyn, New York at Philadelphia, Orlando at Toronto, Indiana at Miami, Houston at Dallas, the Clippers at Minnesota, the Lakers at Golden State and Denver at Phoenix.

Group play continues on Nov. 6, 13, 20 and 27, with extra Cup Nights on Nov. 24 and 25. The quarterfinals are Dec. 4 and 5, and the championship is Dec. 11 at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

See the AI sports picks hub for StatSniper's NBA coverage, and read the NBA's own Cup format breakdown for the full rules behind this year's NBA Cup odds.

FAQ

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NBA Cup? The Oklahoma City Thunder at +290, per DraftKings via ESPN on Oct. 13, ahead of the San Antonio Spurs at +425 and the Boston Celtics at +1000.

How many teams make the NBA Cup knockout rounds? Eight. The six group winners advance, plus one wild card from each conference, which is the second-place team with the best group play record, per the NBA.

When is the 2026 NBA Cup final? Friday, Dec. 11, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Quarterfinals are Dec. 4 and 5, and the semifinals are Dec. 8 and/or 9, per the NBA.

Do NBA Cup games count in the regular-season standings? Group play, quarterfinal and semifinal games count toward the 82-game regular season. The championship game does not, per the NBA.

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