NBA Rookie of the Year Odds 2026-27: Boozer, Wilson Lead

Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson are +300 co-favorites on the NBA Rookie of the Year odds board at BetMGM, per the book's own Sept. 11 update. That is a 25% implied chance each, and neither of them went first in the draft. Boozer opened alone on top at +250, while Wilson started at +1000 and has shortened sharply since.

Four rookies sit at +425 or shorter at every book that prices them, and nobody else is shorter than +900. It is a four-man market.

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds 2026-27: The Full Board

Prices below are the nine shortest in the BetMGM column on VegasInsider's six-book screen, which carries no timestamp, as read Sept. 17. The top two match the Sept. 11 post on BetMGM's own blog. Implied probabilities are straight conversions with the vig left in.

Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies (No. 3 pick): +300 (25%)

Caleb Wilson, Bulls (No. 4 pick): +300 (25%)

Darryn Peterson, Jazz (No. 2 pick): +350 (22%)

AJ Dybantsa, Wizards (No. 1 pick): +400 (20%)

Darius Acuff Jr., Kings (No. 7 pick): +1400 (7%)

Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors (No. 11 pick): +1600 (6%)

Mikel Brown Jr., Nets (No. 6 pick): +2000 (5%)

Keaton Wagler, Clippers (No. 5 pick): +4000 (2%)

Brayden Burries, Bucks (No. 10 pick): +8000 (1%)

Pick numbers and teams are from the official 2026 NBA Draft results on NBA.com. With the vig left in, the top four add up to about 92 points of a BetMGM column that sums to roughly 125%, or about three quarters of the market.

Books disagree on the order. Per the same VegasInsider screen, Wilson ranged from +240 at Caesars to +400 at Rivers, the widest gap among the top four. Boozer was +300 everywhere except +325 at Caesars, Peterson ran from +300 at Rivers to +350 at BetMGM and FanDuel, and Dybantsa was +400 across the board except +425 at Caesars. DraftKings listed Peterson at +330 and no price for the other three.

The Case for Boozer and Wilson

Both favorites are priced on opportunity. BetMGM's writeup notes Memphis traded Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Desmond Bane within the past year, leaving Boozer as the expected franchise player. Per the NBA's Summer League numbers quoted by SI, he averaged 18.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists and led the Grizzlies to the championship game.

Wilson is the riser. Per Covers, he was trading at just 7% on Polymarket right after the draft, then averaged 23.5 points in 27.7 minutes at Summer League. The NBA's recap had him at 50.0% from the field and 41.9% from three, notable for a forward who rarely shot threes at North Carolina, per Covers. FanDuel had him at +400 on July 21 per SI; VegasInsider showed the same book at +330 on Sept. 17.

BetMGM's analyst expects Wilson to start at power forward right away on a Chicago team that lacks a true star.

Where the Value Is

Dybantsa is the interesting price. The No. 1 pick averaged 25.0 points at Summer League but shot 1-for-11 from three, per the stats SI cited, and both BetMGM and Covers flag the same problem: shots. Washington added Trae Young and Anthony Davis at last season's deadline, per Covers. At +425 at Caesars you get the top pick at the longest number of the four, with real role risk attached.

Darryn Peterson is the other price to shop. BetMGM's writer sees him as a possible third option behind Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George in Utah, yet he averaged 20.7 points and 4.0 assists in Summer League per the NBA post SI embedded. Per VegasInsider, +350 at BetMGM and FanDuel beats +300 at Rivers.

If you like Wilson, shop hard. Per VegasInsider, he was +240 at Caesars and +400 at Rivers, which converts to a 29% implied chance against 20% on the same player. Acuff has a similar split, +900 at Rivers against +1500 at FanDuel.

For the rest of the futures menu, see our NBA MVP odds 2026-27 breakdown and the NBA championship odds 2026-27 board.

History and Base Rates

Per BetMGM's list of winners and their preseason prices back to 2006-07, 13 of the 19 winners with a listed price were +450 or shorter. Six were +500 or longer: Stephon Castle (+1200), Scottie Barnes (+1100), Michael Carter-Williams (+1200), Damian Lillard (+500), Kyrie Irving (+500) and Tyreke Evans (+700). Malcolm Brogdon was off the board entirely.

Per Covers' history table, the No. 1 pick has won four of the last 10 awards: Cooper Flagg, Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero and Ben Simmons. Picks No. 3 and No. 4 also combined for four in that span, with LaMelo Ball and Luka Doncic at No. 3 and Castle and Barnes at No. 4. Covers adds that nine of the last 10 winners were top-five picks, and that Brogdon, the 36th pick in 2016, is the only winner this century from outside the lottery.

Per BetMGM's list, three winners were minus money before the season: Kevin Durant at -200, Wembanyama at -145 and Flagg at -225, the biggest preseason favorite in data that goes back to 2007. The list shows winners only, so it says nothing about odds-on favorites who lost. As for what wins, the NBA's release on Flagg listed 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 70 games, and he still beat Kon Knueppel by only 26 points in the voting.

What to Watch Next

Per NBA.com's key dates for the 2026-27 season, camps open Sept. 29, preseason games begin Oct. 3, rosters are set Oct. 19 and the regular season starts Oct. 20. Preseason minutes and starting lineups are the first real information on role, which is what this market is pricing.

Three things to watch. First, whether Dybantsa starts and closes next to Young and Davis. Second, whether Wilson's Summer League three-point shooting carries over. Third, whether the +240 on Wilson at Caesars, per VegasInsider, drags other books down or snaps back toward +400.

Once games start, the StatSniper AI sports picks hub carries the nightly NBA card.

FAQ

Who is the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year in 2026-27?

Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson are +300 co-favorites at BetMGM as of Sept. 11, per the book's blog. Per VegasInsider on Sept. 17, Caesars had Wilson alone on top at +240.

What are AJ Dybantsa's Rookie of the Year odds?

The No. 1 pick was +400 at bet365, BetMGM, FanDuel and Rivers and +425 at Caesars on Sept. 17 per VegasInsider.

How often does the No. 1 pick win Rookie of the Year?

Four times in the last 10 seasons and 24 times since 1953, per Covers. Nine of the last 10 winners were top-five picks, which covers the top four in the current NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

When does the 2026-27 NBA season start?

Oct. 20, 2026, per NBA.com, with camps opening Sept. 29 and preseason games Oct. 3.

Want a second opinion on a number before you bet it? Ask Chad, the StatSniper AI, to walk through the price with you.

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