AFC South Odds 2026: Jaguars Favored as Colts Sell Off

Jacksonville is -440 to win the AFC South, per DraftKings, two games clear of the field at 4-2. Indianapolis sits at +1400, and that number got longer this week for a reason that has nothing to do with the scoreboard: the Colts spent Tuesday trading away two of their best players rather than chasing a playoff spot.

AFC South Odds 2026: The Full Board

Per DraftKings, the division-winner market has the Jaguars at -440, the Texans at +400, the Colts at +1400 and the Titans at +10000. Other books carry a similar shape on Jacksonville: BetMGM has the Jaguars at -425, Caesars and BetRivers both have them at -400, and Circa Sports is the shortest price at -450. Converting the DraftKings number, -440 on the Jaguars works out to roughly 81.5 percent before the sportsbook's margin, which tells you how settled the market already considers this race.

Converting the Board to Probability

Run the numbers through the standard conversion, per DraftKings: Jacksonville's -440 is about 81.5 percent, Houston's +400 is 20.0 percent, Indianapolis's +1400 is 6.7 percent and Tennessee's +10000 is just under 1.0 percent. Add the four together and the book's own number totals roughly 109 percent, which is the built-in margin, or vig, on a four-way market like this one. Strip that out and Jacksonville's true price sits closer to 75 percent, which is still the number every other team in the division needs to beat.

The Standings

Per CBS Sports, the division sits at Jacksonville 4-2, Indianapolis 2-5, Houston 2-5 and Tennessee 1-6. Houston opened the year as the preseason favorite to reclaim the division from the Jaguars and instead enters this week tied with the Colts for second-to-last, a swing that explains why the Texans are still priced inside shouting distance at +400 even at 2-5: the market still rates their roster higher than their record right now. Tennessee's 1-6 start has pushed the Titans out to a five-figure number with almost no path left.

Indianapolis Is Selling, Not Buying

The Colts traded All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson to the Seahawks for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick, and sent three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the 49ers for a 2027 fourth-round pick, per Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport on the Buckner deal, with both trades completed Tuesday. Indianapolis is 2-5, on pace to miss the playoffs for a sixth straight year, and is operating under new football-operations leadership after firing GM Chris Ballard. The full breakdown of both trades, including who else in Indianapolis could move before the Nov. 10 deadline, is in our Colts trade coverage.

Betting Impact

Losing Nelson at left guard and Buckner on the interior defensive line is the kind of subtraction that shows up gradually, not instantly, but the futures market already moved on it: Indianapolis was a long shot before Tuesday and is a longer one now. If Indianapolis follows through on trading running back Jonathan Taylor, defensive lineman Grover Stewart or receiver Josh Downs before Nov. 10, as has been reported as a possibility, expect the Colts' division and win-total numbers to keep drifting even further from the field.

On the other side, Jacksonville's -440 price already assumes the Jaguars hold serve against a division that is actively getting worse. The DFS angle worth tracking is the Colts' offensive line now playing without its anchor at left guard, which is a plus matchup for every pass rush Indianapolis faces the rest of the season, starting with whichever AFC South defense it sees next. Houston's +400 price is the one number on the board that still reads more like a preseason hangover than a reaction to 2-5: the Texans opened the year as the favorite to take the division back from Jacksonville, and the market has not fully let go of that evaluation even as the record has gone the other way.

For season-long tickets, Jacksonville at -440 only pays $100 on a $440 bet, so the number is better used as a confirmation of the Jaguars' floor than as a betting target by itself. Houston at +400 is the more interesting ticket for anyone who believes the preseason scouting report over the current record, since a $100 bet returns $400 if the Texans climb back on top. Indianapolis and Tennessee are now priced as pure longshot tickets, and both numbers are more likely to get longer than shorter with the trade deadline still three weeks out.

What to Watch Next

The Nov. 10 trade deadline is the next checkpoint, both for any further Colts moves and for whether Houston's front office treats its own 2-5 record as a sign to sell. Jacksonville's number only gets shorter from here if the Jaguars keep winning and the rest of the division keeps subtracting talent. For the full NFL slate, see our daily picks page, and for another division market see our NFC South odds coverage. StatSniper's Chad AI has the full AFC South breakdown inside the app, or you can ask Chad directly.

FAQ

Who is favored to win the AFC South in 2026? The Jacksonville Jaguars, at -440 per DraftKings, with a 4-2 record.

What are the current AFC South standings? Jacksonville 4-2, Indianapolis 2-5, Houston 2-5 and Tennessee 1-6, per CBS Sports.

Why did the Colts trade Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner? Indianapolis is 2-5 and on pace to miss the playoffs a sixth straight year. The front office, now led by Ed Dodds after Chris Ballard's firing, is building draft capital for 2027 rather than chasing this season.

Could the Colts trade more players before the deadline? Running back Jonathan Taylor, defensive lineman Grover Stewart and receiver Josh Downs have all been named as possible trade candidates ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.

---

*21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Stat Sniper provides data and projections for informational purposes; you are responsible for your own wagers.*