Gavin McKenna 2026 NHL Draft Night: Toronto on the Clock at KeyBank, Sabres Hold 4-9-20

The 2026 NHL Draft opens Friday night at KeyBank Center in Buffalo at 7:00 PM ET with Toronto on the clock for Penn State winger Gavin McKenna, per NHL.com's final mock. McKenna led the NCAA in points among freshmen with 51 (15 goals, 36 assists) at 1.46 points per game across 35 games, set Penn State single-season records for both assists (36) and freshman points (51), and was named Big Ten Scoring Champion with 38 points in 24 conference games, per the Penn State athletics site. He finished as a Hobey Baker top-10 finalist and the top-rated North American skater by NHL Central Scouting "by a considerable margin," per NHL.com.

Why McKenna and Why Toronto

McKenna's freshman season at Penn State produced the third 50-point year in program history and tied for fifth among all NCAA skaters, per the school release. Scouts cite a deliberate jump in physical engagement against college competition that addresses the only real swing on his draft profile, namely whether the slight frame would translate against pro pace, per Penn State Collegian.

Toronto came out of the lottery with the first overall pick and has not had a No. 1 selection since 1985. The fit answers the front office's stated priority of adding skill at the wing position in a draft class that scouts have flagged as top-heavy. Ivar Stenberg from Frolunda is the consensus No. 2 to San Jose, per the NHL.com final mock.

The Buffalo Picture: Three First-Round Selections in One Building

Buffalo holds picks No. 4, No. 9, and No. 20 in the first round, the deepest haul in the building tonight, per NHL.com's pick order. The No. 4 selection arrived June 23 in the trade that sent defenseman Bowen Byram and Jordan Greenway to Chicago for the pick plus center prospect Crevier and a second-rounder, per the Sabres release. The franchise has not had three first-rounders in a single draft since 2021.

Three picks at 4, 9, and 20 in a draft with this profile is the cleanest path the Sabres have had to a positional reset in years. The board around the No. 4 spot at consensus mocks runs Lukas Tochtermann, Anton Frondell, and Brady Martin depending on the trade-up market behind Toronto and San Jose. Chicago, sitting at No. 6 in addition to whatever it took on in the Byram exchange, is the team most likely to flip back into the top five if Buffalo is open to it.

Betting Impact and Prop Markets

Player draft position has cleaner markets in 2026 than it did even a year ago. DraftKings has McKenna at minus-2000 to go No. 1 in the most recent pricing window pulled June 25. Stenberg is similarly priced to land at No. 2. The market open for over 4.5 first overall picks is on McKenna's exact path, his over/under hometown reaction, and the head-to-head positional bets between Lukas Tochtermann and Brady Martin.

The first-round trade prop is the live one. Books have over 1.5 traded picks in the top 10 as a chalky favorite given the Byram trade's signaling of a willingness to move. Buffalo's No. 4 has the lowest implied probability of being moved among the three picks the Sabres hold. The No. 9 and No. 20 selections are the candidates for the trade-up market.

DFS is not the right tool for a draft night, but futures markets reprice within minutes of the picks themselves. McKenna's Calder Trophy futures (currently the second-shortest price in the rookie of the year market) will move further if Toronto signals he plays in a top-six wing role to open the year. Toronto's Stanley Cup futures will not move materially on the pick itself, but they would move if Toronto packages picks at 9 or below in a flip for a top-pair defenseman before the puck drops on Round 2 Saturday.

Responsible gambling note: prices above were pulled from DraftKings on the night of June 25 at 10:00 PM ET. Confirm at your book of record before placing. Lines move.

What to Watch Next

The McKenna pick is the early floor. The actual narrative beats start at No. 3 with the Anaheim Ducks and No. 4 with Buffalo. Watch for the Sabres' choice between Frondell, Tochtermann, and a possible Martin pick at No. 4 and whether they bundle 9 and 20 to move up or down. Chicago at No. 6 plus its Byram-deal package is the franchise that could shake the board if it pushes back up.

Round 2 runs Saturday June 27 starting at noon ET, with picks 33 through 224. Buffalo holds the No. 33 selection, the first slot in the round, and depth on Day 2 is where the Sabres' Day 1 haul actually gets graded. For the season-long context, the 2026 NHL Draft preview covered the path-to-No. 1 picture, and the Bowen Byram trade post walked through how Buffalo got to 4, 9, and 20 in the first place.

Chad AI is tracking the over 1.5 traded first-round picks prop, Calder futures repricing as picks come in, and the Sabres pick board inside the /chad/ app. For more NHL coverage as Round 1 unfolds, the NHL daily picks feed is live through draft weekend.

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