Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 Preview: Aberg Plus-850 at Colonial, Scheffler WD, Griffin Defends

Ludvig Aberg opens as a plus-850 betting favorite for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club, the shortest price on the board after Scottie Scheffler's late withdrawal. Aberg ranks first on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained approach, and strokes gained ball-striking across the last 36 rounds. He has not won this season. He arrives in Fort Worth on a stretch of T4, T8, and T4 finishes. First round Thursday, May 28 at Colonial.

This is one of two PGA Tour stops with a permanent home: Hogan's Alley. The shot patterns it rewards have not changed in 80 years.

The Field After the Withdrawals

Scottie Scheffler pulled out earlier this week. Rory McIlroy is also off the schedule. Two of the three favorites are gone, and the betting market has compressed. The odds board through Tuesday afternoon at DraftKings.

1. Ludvig Aberg, plus-850 2. Russell Henley, plus-1800 3. Ben Griffin (defending champion), plus-2200 4. Justin Thomas, plus-2200 5. Rickie Fowler, plus-2200 6. Robert MacIntyre, plus-2200 7. Sahith Theegala, plus-2800 8. Sam Burns, plus-3000 9. Tony Finau, plus-3000 10. Maverick McNealy, plus-3500

What jumps out: Aberg's number at plus-850 implies roughly 10.5 percent. That is a sharp price for a 156-player field where the second-shortest is plus-1800. The market is saying Aberg is the only player with a top-15 short price.

The other interesting names are Russell Henley and Rickie Fowler. Henley has a 16th place finish at Colonial as his best result in five tries, but his iron play and short game match the course profile perfectly. Fowler returns to Colonial for the 13th time, a course he has played well enough to keep coming back to.

Why Colonial Plays the Way It Plays

Colonial is a precision course, not a bombers' paradise. The winning score has been minus-15 or worse in zero of the last seven editions. Ben Griffin won at minus-12 in 2025. The course punishes spray, rewards iron play into small, sloped greens, and limits the driver's edge.

A few course-fit datapoints worth holding.

1. The fairway widths average 27 to 31 yards in landing zones, narrower than Tour average by roughly 4 yards. 2. The rough plays at 3.5 inches this week, longer than the season average. 3. The greens run 12.5 on the stimpmeter, firm by Tuesday reports out of the Tour. 4. Average winning strokes gained on approach over the last decade: plus-7.2. That is the highest correlation in the data. 5. Average winning driving distance: 285 yards. The shortest of any non-major stop on the calendar. 6. Colonial has not produced a top-five driving-distance leaderboard winner since 2014.

The course favors a specific archetype: a Tour-quality iron player with reliable short game who can keep the driver in play. Aberg fits the model. Henley fits the model. Sungjae Im, who finished second here in 2024 (and you can see our coverage of his Valspar run in the Valspar piece), is the deep-board value at plus-4000.

Betting Impact: Where the Value Sits

The market reaction to the Scheffler WD pushed Aberg's price down and inflated the top-15 numbers. Three angles worth playing.

1. Aberg outright at plus-850. Reasonable price, but skinny relative to his win rate. He has converted only twice on Tour. The better play is Aberg top-five at minus-110 or top-10 at minus-185 depending on book. Sharper expected value. 2. Russell Henley each-way. Plus-1800 to win, but Henley's first-round leader and top-five numbers are where the chalk is not. He is plus-2500 top-five at FanDuel. That number is a half-step too long given his Colonial fit. 3. Ben Griffin top-20. Defending champion, played the course better than anyone in the field last year, and only Ben Hogan has successfully defended this title (1946-47, 1952-53). The win price at plus-2200 is fair but the top-20 at minus-105 is the cleaner ticket.

For DFS, Aberg is the salary cap killer at roughly $11,200 on DraftKings. The pivot is Theegala at $9,400. He has been running hot off a Memorial top-10 and his ball-striking profile maps onto Colonial. Maverick McNealy at $8,200 is the bottom-cap stack play.

The first-round leader market is where the volatility lives. Henley, Fowler, and Tom Hoge are the value names at 60-1 or longer. The Thursday wave matters here: morning tee times are favored at Colonial because the wind picks up afternoons, and the Tour has signaled Thursday afternoon is the windier wave.

What Aberg Has to Avoid

The Aberg story is a putter story. He has been the best ball-striker in the world for two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in strokes gained putting in every full season of his career. Colonial's greens are subtle. The reads are shorter than at most stops. If he can keep the lag putting tidy, he wins.

The other variable: weather. The Fort Worth forecast through Sunday calls for afternoon thunderstorms Thursday and Friday and steady wind 12-18 mph Saturday and Sunday. The course plays half a shot harder per round in those conditions. The over/under for the winning score sits at minus-13 at FanDuel and that is roughly right.

A few last considerations heading into Thursday.

1. Travel schedule: Aberg is off a T4 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago and skipped the Colonial pro-am to rest. That is a sharp lead-in. 2. Course history: Aberg has not played Colonial as a professional. Rookie debuts here have not historically converted (Justin Thomas finished T19 in 2014 in his first try, won the next year). 3. Pin sheets: Look for accessible pins Thursday morning, harder Saturday, and the toughest hole locations Sunday. Birdie windows matter for first-round leader plays.

What to Watch Next

Round 1 tees off Thursday, May 28 at 8 a.m. ET. The Aberg group goes off the back nine at 1:20 p.m. ET. Three things to track before the opening tee shot.

1. The Thursday weather. If the storms shift, the afternoon wave (Aberg, Henley, Griffin) becomes the favored half. If the storms hit late morning, the morning wave gets the better scoring conditions. 2. Late field movement. The PGA Tour does not finalize commits until Friday before tournament week. Watch for any additional WDs that compress the top of the board further. 3. Aberg's range session reports. The Tour beat covers tee-to-green warmup data closely. Reports from Wednesday's range will be the last sentiment input before tee times.

The Memorial Tournament is next week at Muirfield Village (June 4-7), with Scheffler and McIlroy both expected to return. That overlap pulls some of the depth out of this week's field but also opens a clean Aberg opportunity. The PGA Championship's Aaron Rai victory at Aronimink is the most recent major data point in the modeling, and the field at Colonial has just two players from the PGA Sunday top-10.

Chad AI tracks every PGA prop and outright projection inside the app. Hit the PGA daily picks page for the full first-round board.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Lines pulled from DraftKings the afternoon of May 26, 2026. Lines move. Always shop.