2026 Open Championship: Scheffler, McIlroy Lead Royal Birkdale Odds

Scottie Scheffler is the defending Open champion and the favorite to go back-to-back, a consensus +500 favorite across the market with Rory McIlroy the only other man inside +1000, around +700, as of July 2. The 154th Open Championship runs July 16 to 19 at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, and two weeks out the board has already collapsed into a two-man race at the top with a long, live field underneath.

This is the tournament where a links course and English weather reintroduce variance that Scheffler's relentless consistency usually erases. Birkdale does not reward the field leader by default. It rewards ball flight control and patience, which is why the outright market is tighter than Scheffler's usual major pricing.

The Two Favorites

Scheffler earned the top line the hard way. He dominated at Royal Portrush in 2025 to win the Claret Jug by four, and defending champions carry both form and comfort into a return trip. At +500 the market is treating him as the best player in the world on a course that suits precision, which is the correct starting point.

McIlroy is the story that gives the week its weight. He won the 2026 Masters for his second green jacket, opening 67-65 to build a six-shot lead and closing with a 71 to finish one clear of Scheffler. A win at Birkdale would make him the first player to complete the Masters and Open double in the same calendar year since Tiger Woods, a feat only eight men have ever achieved. He also owns real history at this venue, a tie for fourth the last time the Open visited Birkdale in 2017, and he has been preparing at the course ahead of the championship.

The Field Underneath

The value hunt starts at the next tier. Jon Rahm sits around +1400, with Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele near +1600, Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Young around +1800, and Ludvig Aberg near +2200. That is a deep band of live major threats, and links golf historically widens the winner pool because weather waves and firm conditions compress the gap between the elite and the merely excellent.

Fleetwood is the sentimental and situational angle at Birkdale. Southport is his home, the links he grew up on, and a home crowd behind a proven links player is exactly the kind of narrative the each-way market prices around at a major. He is not the play to win outright at his number, but he is a natural fit for top-five and top-ten markets.

Betting Impact

The outright board tells you to be selective. Scheffler at +500 is fair rather than generous, and McIlroy at +700 carries the added narrative premium of the calendar Slam chase. If you want the two favorites, the cleaner expression is often the matchup and top-finish markets rather than the outright, where the vig on the chalk is steepest.

The each-way and top-ten markets are where a links major usually pays. A firm, breezy Birkdale setup rewards shot shapers and course knowledge, which pushes value toward players like Fleetwood and the mid-tier ball strikers who can survive a bad weather draw. Watch the forecast in the days before the first round, because the tee-time wave split at a coastal links can swing an entire top-ten card.

Follow the board as it firms up through Chad's daily golf picks and the main Chad picks page. For the official field and course information, the Open Championship's site is the primary source.

What to Watch Next

The field is still filling in, and the last qualifying spots and any late withdrawals will reshape the middle of the board. Form lines from the run-up events matter more than usual here, since links preparation and current ball striking are the two variables that travel to Birkdale.

The headline remains the McIlroy Slam chase against a defending champion at the peak of his powers. If McIlroy arrives in form, the double storyline will dominate the week and pull outright money toward him regardless of the number. The majors season already delivered a marquee moment at Shinnecock, covered in our 2026 US Open final-round recap of Wyndham Clark's second US Open title, and the board only gets louder from here.

Chad is tracking the Fleetwood each-way angle and the weather draw. Follow along as the field locks in.

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