Paraguay vs Australia Preview: Group D Second Place at Levi's, Both Sides Must Win or Sweat

Paraguay vs Australia closes Group D at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday, June 25 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time, with both teams sitting on three points and direct qualification as group runners-up on the line, per Bettors Insider. Paraguay enter as a slight favorite at plus-175 to plus-190 on the moneyline, per the same source.

The United States have already clinched first place in Group D after the 4-1 win over Paraguay and the 2-0 win over Australia, per CBS Sports. Türkiye are eliminated. That makes Paraguay-Australia a true win-and-in match for both sides.

What Each Side Needs

Australia can lock up second place in Group D with a win or a draw against Paraguay, per CBS Sports' scenario breakdown. Paraguay need a straight win to take the runner-up spot. The loser, or both sides on a draw, fall back into the eight-best-third-place math.

The third-place math is real. Per the ESPN clinching scenarios, neither Paraguay nor Australia is comfortably above the cutoff yet, and a defeat by multiple goals could leave either side outside the Round of 32 entirely. That is the part that should drive the in-game model. Neither manager can afford to play for the draw past the 75th minute.

The qualification math is the cleanest input on the over/under and the both-teams-to-score markets. Paraguay and Australia each need a goal to be safe and each have to chase if they fall behind. Open game. End-to-end.

The third-place permutations are the underrated math problem. Per Yahoo Sports' scenario breakdown, the top four of the eight third-place sides advance comfortably, the next two are on the bubble depending on goal difference and goals scored, and the bottom two are out. A team that loses the Group D second-place match by two or more goals likely falls into the bubble range. A clean 1-0 loss with one goal scored almost certainly stays in. That math should be on every in-game model from minute 60 forward, because the trail team will accept a small loss rather than chase a turnover and concede the second.

Predicted Tactics and Key Players

Paraguay are expected to start in a 4-3-3 with Antonio Sanabria leading the line. Sanabria scored against the United States in Paraguay's only attacking sequence of note across two group matches and is the most defensible Paraguay anytime scorer pick at any number better than plus-200.

Australia under Tony Popovic will set up in a 4-3-3 with Mathew Leckie, Riley McGree, and likely Mitch Duke. Australia's strength all tournament has been the central press and the turnovers in the middle third. Aiden O'Neill is the player who consistently turns those turnovers into shots and is the underrated Socceroos prop on the day.

The midfield is the battleground. Paraguay will try to play through Miguel Almiron and Damian Bobadilla. Australia will try to break Paraguay's first line of press and get Connor Metcalfe into the space behind. Whichever midfield wins the second-ball battle in the first 30 minutes likely wins the match.

Paraguay vs Australia Betting and DFS Impact

The moneyline at plus-175 to plus-190 is a fair number for a true coin-flip-with-stakes game. The smarter exposure is the totals and the over 2.5 market. Both teams must score and must score multiple. The historical pattern in win-and-in group-stage matches over the past three World Cups has skewed toward 2-1 and 3-1 final scores, both of which clear an over 2.5.

The double chance Australia or Draw is the conservative play that leans into the win-or-draw qualification math. At a price near minus-130 to minus-140, that line carries the implied probability that matches Australia's actual outcome distribution from a group-stage qualification perspective.

The DFS angle is the same one that runs through every dead-equal qualification match: full-back and wide-midfielder usage spikes, because both managers will push the wing and full-back overlaps as the primary attacking pattern. Aziz Behich and Gethin Jones if he starts at right back are the Socceroos full-backs to stack. For Paraguay, look at Mathias Villasanti's set-piece delivery as the secondary scoring pattern.

The futures market on Round of 32 odds reprices the moment this final whistle blows. Paraguay or Australia as group runners-up likely draws a Group C or Group E runner-up. The third-place path is heavier. Both books should refresh their R32 odds inside an hour of the result.

What to Watch Next

Kickoff at Levi's at 7:00 PM PT, the second-latest match on the World Cup Thursday card. The USMNT vs Türkiye match at SoFi runs at the same kickoff window and clarifies the Group D winner (already locked) and the Türkiye spoiler narrative.

The Round of 32 bracket fills out by Friday morning. The Group D runner-up draws into a quarter of the bracket that includes the Group A and Group B finishers, which is the third-cleanest quadrant of the tournament. Lock in any Paraguay or Australia R32 ML if you like the price before the Friday morning market settles.

Chad AI tracks every World Cup prop and live in-game model inside the app. Daily Soccer picks are tracked at /daily-picks/soccer/. For Group D context, the USMNT vs Türkiye preview is here.

Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.