MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, May 25, 2026

Analysis

Toronto comes in at 25 and 27 while Miami sits at 24 and 29. The model sees a 2.3 run advantage for the Blue Jays against a posted line of just 1.5. That gap creates a 7.8 percent edge to bet Toronto minus the run and a half. Trey Yesavage owns a 1.07 ERA on the mound while Miami counters with Janson Junk, who carries a 5.07 ERA and has allowed 6.59 runs per start lately. Toronto scores 4.1 runs per game and gives up just 2.2. Miami puts up 4.3 but allows 5.2. The Blue Jays are rolling with a four game win streak and have gone 7 and 3 over their last ten. Miami sits at 4 and 6 in that same window. Toronto's defense ranks 11th while Miami's offense checks in at 16th. The public sees Toronto favored but the model wants more juice on the run line. Toronto covers 54 percent of spreads at home. Miami covers just 43 percent on the road.

Public Fade

Most bettors will see the 1.5 line and think Toronto should cover easily. The public misses how much the model projects this gap to widen. Miami's recent form and poor road ATS trends get ignored when the line looks small.

Analysis

Pittsburgh enters at 26 and 26 while Chicago sits at 29 and 23. The model projects just a 0.6 run advantage for the Cubs but the line sits at 1.5. That creates an 11.3 percent edge on Pittsburgh plus the run and a half. Carmen Mlodzinski gets the start with a 3.96 ERA. Chicago counters with Ben Brown. Pittsburgh scores 4.8 runs per game and allows 4.2. Chicago matches the 4.8 scoring but gives up 4.0. The Pirates rank sixth in offense while Chicago sits 13th in defense. Pittsburgh has already taken two of three from Chicago this season by an average margin of 0.7 runs. The public sees Chicago as the better team and lays the 1.5. Pittsburgh covers 50 percent of spreads at home. Chicago covers just 38 percent on the road.

Public Fade

Casual money sees the Cubs as the stronger club and assumes they cover the run line. The model shows this matchup stays much closer than the 1.5 suggests. Recent form for both clubs has been poor and the head to head results back up the lean on Pittsburgh.

Analysis

Texas comes in at 24 and 27 while Houston sits at 22 and 31. The model projects a total of 7.3 runs against a posted line of 8.5. That 1.2 run gap creates a 13.9 percent edge to the under. Kumar Rocker starts for Texas. Houston sends Tatsuya Imai to the mound with an 8.31 ERA and recent numbers at 9.17. Texas scores 3.9 runs per game and allows 3.5. Houston scores 4.3 but gives up 7.3. Texas defense ranks fifth while Houston offense checks in at 17th. The teams have split their season series with an average margin of 0.3 runs. Texas covers 57 percent of spreads at home. Houston covers just 41 percent on the road. The model sees both offenses struggling to push runs across against solid pitching.

Public Fade

The public sees Houston's recent 6 and 4 run and assumes the total stays high. They overlook Imai's 8.31 ERA and the fact that both clubs rank below average in offense. The model total sits well below the posted line.