MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Analysis

The model projects 7.4 runs in this one against a posted total of 5.5. That gap creates a 34.6 percent edge on the over. Pittsburgh scores 4.8 runs per game and allows 3.4. Chicago scores 4.8 and allows 4.1. Both offenses rank in the top ten while the defenses sit right in the middle of the pack. Braxton Ashcraft has a 2.89 ERA for the Pirates but his recent work sits at 3.43. Jordan Wicks takes the ball for Chicago. Recent form actually favors Pittsburgh, who went 4 and 6 in their last ten while the Cubs stumbled to 2 and 8. The head to head this season shows Pittsburgh taking two of three with an average margin of just 0.7 runs. The spread leans toward Pittsburgh plus 1.5 at 11.9 percent value but the total stands out as the strongest play. Chicago's bullpen has been shaky lately and Pittsburgh's offense has shown it can push runs across at home.

Public Fade

Most bettors are looking at the low total and assuming a pitcher's duel. The numbers say otherwise. Both offenses are better than the posted total suggests.

Analysis

The model projects 8.6 runs against a posted total of 7.5. That creates a 14.8 percent edge on the over. Toronto scores 4.0 runs per game while allowing 2.8. Miami scores 4.3 and allows 4.5. The matchup favors Miami's offense against Toronto's defense, which ranks 11th. Braydon Fisher starts for the Blue Jays with a 2.73 ERA and recent form at 1.70. Sandy Alcantara goes for Miami with a 4.00 ERA and recent form at 5.44. Toronto went 6 and 4 in their last ten while Miami sits at 5 and 5. The spread leans Miami plus 1.5 at 5.1 percent value. Toronto covers 52 percent at home but Miami has only covered 43 percent on the road. The higher projected total comes from both offenses finding ways to score against middle of the pack defenses.

Public Fade

Bettors see Toronto's strong home record and assume the favorite covers easily. The model likes the underdog plus the runs instead.

Analysis

The model projects New York to win by 2.2 runs against a posted spread of 1.5. That creates a 6.9 percent edge on the Yankees minus 1.5. New York scores 4.8 runs per game while allowing just 2.1. Kansas City scores 3.9 and allows 4.1. The matchup shows Kansas City's offense ranked 25th against New York's third ranked defense. Cam Schlittler starts for the Yankees with a 1.50 ERA. Bailey Falter takes the mound for Kansas City. New York has taken all three meetings this season with an average margin of 4.7 runs. The model spread sits at 1.4 runs, right in line with the posted number. Kansas City has struggled all season at 22 and 31 while New York sits at 31 and 22. The Yankees defense and recent dominance in the head to head make them the clear side despite the heavy moneyline price on Kansas City.

Public Fade

The public sees the massive moneyline price on Kansas City and assumes the home dog keeps it close. New York's defense and head to head history say otherwise.