MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, May 16, 2026

Analysis

New England Revolution sits at 7-4-1 while Minnesota United FC checks in at 6-4-3. The model sees New England as a -0.9 favorite yet the line sits at just -0.5, creating an 8.2 percent edge. New England scores 1.7 goals per game and concedes only 1.3, giving them a solid all around profile. Minnesota is the opposite, scoring 1.2 and allowing 1.5. That gap shows up in the rankings too. New England offense ranks 14th against a Minnesota defense that is 10th. Minnesota offense ranks 25th against a New England defense that is 7th. New England is also on a back to back, but the model still likes them to cover because Minnesota has only two days rest themselves. The lean on the moneyline at plus 123 is even stronger with a 17.5 percent edge. I am taking New England minus a half goal and leaning the moneyline as a smaller side bet.

Public Fade

Most bettors are looking at Minnesota recent form and assuming the road team will stay close. They are missing the fact that New England has been the better side all season and the model sees them as nearly a full goal favorite. The value is on the home side.

Analysis

D.C. United comes in at 4-5-4 while St. Louis CITY SC is 3-6-3. The model prices this game as nearly even but with a slight edge to the home side. D.C. scores 1.2 goals per game and allows 1.5, while St. Louis scores 1.0 and allows 1.6. That small gap adds up when the line is dead even. D.C. offense ranks 26th against a St. Louis defense that is 15th, and St. Louis offense ranks 28th against a D.C. defense that is 13th. The model spread sits at minus 0.3 against a posted line of zero, giving us a 6.9 percent edge on D.C. plus nothing. D.C. is on a back to back while St. Louis has two days rest, but the numbers still lean home. The moneyline at plus 143 carries a 14.5 percent edge as well. I am taking D.C. United plus zero and adding a small moneyline lean.

Public Fade

Public money is drifting toward St. Louis because they are coming off a better recent stretch. The model sees through that and likes D.C. to hold serve or better at home against a St. Louis side that struggles to score.

Analysis

Philadelphia Union is 1-9-3 and Columbus Crew is 3-7-3. The model has this game almost dead even with a tiny lean toward the visitors. Philadelphia scores 1.0 goal per game and allows 1.8, while Columbus scores 1.4 and allows 1.7. The rankings tell the same story. Philadelphia offense ranks 29th against a Columbus defense that is 19th. Columbus offense ranks 23rd against a Philadelphia defense that is 20th. The model spread is plus 0.1 for Columbus against a posted line of zero, creating a 3.1 percent edge. Head to head this season Philadelphia is 0-1 against Columbus with an average margin of minus 2.0. Columbus has the better attack and a slight edge in most categories, so the model likes them to at least draw or win outright. I am taking Columbus plus zero as the lean play on this board.

Public Fade

Most bettors are seeing Philadelphia at home and assuming they will keep it close. They are ignoring the fact that Philadelphia has one of the worst offenses in the league and Columbus has already beaten them once this season.