MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 24, 2026

Analysis

The model gives Columbus Crew a 77.3 percent chance to win this one, and that number feels right when you look at the underlying data. Columbus enters with a 3 7 4 record while Atlanta sits at 3 8 2. The Crew average 1.4 goals scored and allow 1.6 per game. Atlanta manages just 1.1 goals scored against 1.6 allowed. The matchup favors Columbus across the board. Their offense ranks 23rd against Atlanta's 16th ranked defense. Meanwhile Atlanta's offense checks in at 27th versus Columbus' 18th ranked defense. The model spread sits at minus 0.9, and the book has this line at minus 1. That small gap between the numbers still leaves plenty of value on the moneyline. Head to head this season Columbus already beat Atlanta by an average margin of 2 goals. The Crew are simply the better side here and the model is confident enough to recommend betting them outright at minus 189.

Public Fade

The public sees two teams with similar records and assumes this will be close. What they miss is Columbus has the better attack, better defense, and already proved it against Atlanta earlier this year.

Analysis

Inter Miami comes in at 8 2 4 while Philadelphia Union sits at a dismal 1 9 4. The model gives Miami an 84.5 percent chance to win, and the evidence lines up. Miami scores 2.4 goals per game and allows 1.7. Philadelphia manages just 1 goal scored against 1.7 allowed. The spread projection lands at minus 1.4, which lines up close to the posted minus 1.5. Miami's offense ranks first in the league against Philadelphia's 22nd ranked defense. On the other side Philadelphia's offense ranks 29th against Miami's 21st ranked defense. The quality gap is massive. Miami has the firepower to put this game away early. Philadelphia has struggled to score all season and they face the league's best attack here. The model sees real value on the moneyline despite the heavy odds.

Public Fade

The public sees the big number on Miami and assumes the value is gone. They overlook how bad Philadelphia has been and how dominant Miami's attack has looked all year.