NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 10, 2026

Analysis

Model spits out a -0.6 spread here, but the line sits at -1.5 for Anaheim. That's a clean 6.4% edge to grab Vegas plus the puck. Anaheim scores 3.2 a game but coughs up 3.5, while Vegas matches that scoring punch at 3.2 yet allows just 3.0. Ducks' defense ranks dead last at 30th, facing Vegas' offense sitting 13th. Flip it, Anaheim's 12th ranked attack meets Vegas' 13th ranked defense. Special teams tilt Vegas' way too. Their power play clicks at 24.6% against Anaheim's shaky 76.4% penalty kill, projecting about 0.72 goals per matchup. Ducks' power play manages just 0.56 against Vegas' solid 81.4% kill. Recent form screams Vegas. They're on a three game win streak. Head to head splits even at 2-2 this season, but average margin's a tight -0.8. ATS wise, Anaheim covers only 44% at home. Vegas hits 50% on the road. Model sees 85% books at -1.5 with 15% closer to even money. Can't ignore that gap. But the real juice is the defensive mismatch. Anaheim's back end is porous. Vegas keeps games close. They cover this no sweat.

Public Fade

Public's piling on Anaheim at home with a decent record. But they overlook the Ducks' awful defense and Vegas' balanced attack. Books shading the line too far, begging for the fade.

Analysis

Model projects -1.6 on the spread with the line at -1.5, giving a small but real 0.4% edge. Lean into Montreal covering at home. Habs score 3.4 per game, allow 3.1. Buffalo edges them offensively at 3.5 but gives up 2.9. Key though, Sabres miss Noah Ostlund at center, handing Montreal a 1.2 point net injury edge. Habs' offense ranks 7th against Buffalo's 12th defense. Buffalo's top 5 attack faces Montreal's middling 18th ranked defense. Head to head even at 2-2, average margin +0.5 for Habs. ATS trends show Montreal at 50% home covers, but Buffalo's nuts at 91% on the road. Model spread -1.3 blends 85% books at -1.5 and 15% tighter. Still, with the injury and offensive firepower, Montreal pulls ahead. Buffalo's road cover rate tempts, but missing Ostlund hurts their depth. Habs feast on that. Defense holds enough to cover. Confidence high at 75%.

Public Fade

Everyone's riding Buffalo's insane 91% road cover rate. Makes sense on paper. But they ignore the Ostlund injury and Montreal's home edge against a depleted Sabres lineup.