NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, May 16, 2026

Analysis

Montreal comes in at 48 wins and 24 losses while Buffalo sits at 50 and 23. The model has the spread at 1.8 goals for the Canadiens and the posted line sits at 1.5 which creates a 2.2 percent edge. Montreal scores 3.4 per game and gives up 3.1 while Buffalo scores 3.5 but allows 2.9. That slight defensive edge for the home team plus the 1.2 point injury advantage from Buffalo missing Noah Ostlund pushes the number in Montreal direction. The matchup numbers line up too. Montreal offense ranks seventh against Buffalo defense ranked twelfth. Buffalo offense sits fifth against Montreal defense ranked eighteenth. Head to head Montreal is 3 and 1 with a 2.5 goal average margin. Buffalo covers 88 percent on the road but Montreal still gets the lean at home where they cover at a 50 percent clip. The model spread sits at 1.3 and the book has it at 1.5 so the public is actually getting a decent number. Montreal is the sharper side here.

Public Fade

The public sees Buffalo with the better record and assumes they will win outright on the road. They overlook the head to head dominance Montreal has shown and the missing center that hurts Buffalo depth. The model sees the edge on the spread not the moneyline.

Analysis

Vegas enters at 39 wins and 26 losses against Anaheim at 43 and 33. The model likes the Golden Knights moneyline at plus money even though Anaheim has the better record. Vegas plays at home where they control pace and get the better goaltending edge. Anaheim is missing Radko Gudas, Drew Helleson, and Ryan Poehling which removes three key pieces from their lineup. The model sees enough value on the Vegas side to overcome the record gap. Anaheim has been competitive but the injury toll adds up and Vegas has the home ice advantage that usually tilts these games. The edge sits at 4.8 percent which is strong enough to take a stand on the moneyline.

Public Fade

Most bettors look at the win totals and assume Anaheim is the stronger side. They miss the injury impact and how Vegas performs at home against teams missing depth pieces. The public fades the home dog too often in these spots.

Analysis

Carolina comes in at 53 wins and 22 losses against Philadelphia at 43 and 27. The model has Carolina as the clear favorite at home and the moneyline carries a 3.9 percent edge. Carolina plays a structured game that limits chances and they have the depth to wear down opponents over 60 minutes. Philadelphia is missing Nikita Grebenkin, Noah Cates, Owen Tippett, and Ty Murchison. That is four regulars out of the lineup which creates a massive hole in their forward group. Carolina has been one of the best home teams all season and the injury situation makes this matchup even more lopsided than the record suggests. The model sees Carolina winning outright at a rate that beats the posted odds. Take the moneyline and ride the home favorite.

Public Fade

The public sees Philadelphia hanging around the playoff race and assumes they will keep it close. They ignore how many key pieces are missing and how dominant Carolina has been at home against depleted lineups. The numbers point to a Carolina win here.