NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 24, 2026

Analysis

The model sees real value on Colorado laying the puck line here. Vegas scores 3.2 goals per game and allows 3.0. Colorado scores 3.6 goals per game while allowing just 2.4. That gap shows up in the rankings too. Vegas offense ranks 13th against a Colorado defense that sits third. Colorado offense ranks first against a Vegas defense ranked 13th. Special teams don't offer much relief for the Golden Knights either. Their power play converts at 24.6 percent against a Colorado penalty kill at 84.6 percent, which projects to about 0.60 power play goals per game. Colorado power play sits at 17.1 percent against a Vegas kill at 81.4 percent for roughly 0.54 power play goals per game. Head to head this season tells a different story on the surface. Vegas went 3 to 1 against Colorado with an average margin of one goal. But the model spread comes in at 1.3 goals while the book has it at 1.5. That's where the 3.2 percent edge comes from. Vegas covers just 44 percent at home while Colorado covers 64 percent on the road. The numbers point to Colorado covering the puck line.

Public Fade

Most bettors see Vegas at home and remember their 3 and 1 record against Colorado this year. They assume the home team keeps it close. But the model shows Colorado has the better offense and defense by a wide margin. The public is buying the head to head narrative while ignoring the season long rankings.