Heisman Odds 2026: Jeremiah Smith Leads the Board Into Week 5

Jeremiah Smith is the +260 favorite in the Heisman odds 2026 market at DraftKings, per DraftKings Network's board updated Sept. 28, after the Ohio State receiver caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 win over Illinois. He was +1050 a week earlier and +1400 in the preseason. The quarterback with the shortest preseason price on DraftKings' board, Notre Dame's CJ Carr at +700, is now +1100 on that same board.

Week 5's Saturday slate is today, with Smith, Darian Mensah and Kamario Taylor all scheduled to play, so the top of this board could look different by Sunday morning.

Heisman Odds 2026: The Current Board

The table below uses DraftKings prices. Most come from DraftKings Network's Sept. 28 update; Taylor and Jadan Baugh are not listed there, so their prices come from ESPN's Sept. 29 odds column, which also uses DraftKings. Preseason prices are DraftKings' preseason column.

| Player | School | Late Sept. price | Implied % | Preseason price | |-|-|-|-|-| | Jeremiah Smith, WR | Ohio State | +260 | 27.8% | +1400 | | Darian Mensah, QB | Miami | +380 | 20.8% | +1150 | | Kamario Taylor, QB | Mississippi State | +500 (ESPN) | 16.7% | Not listed | | Jadan Baugh, RB | Florida | +1050 (ESPN) | 8.7% | Not listed | | CJ Carr, QB | Notre Dame | +1100 | 8.3% | +700 | | Trinidad Chambliss, QB | Ole Miss | +1150 | 8.0% | +1300 | | Keelon Russell, QB | Alabama | +1600 | 5.9% | +2800 | | Malachi Toney, WR | Miami | +1900 | 5.0% | +3800 | | Arch Manning, QB | Texas | +3000 | 3.2% | +750 | | Julian Sayin, QB | Ohio State | +3000 | 3.2% | +1200 |

Implied probability for plus odds is 100 divided by (odds plus 100), so Smith's +260 works out to 27.8%. Shop around before betting: FanDuel had Smith at +290 as of Sept. 27, per FOX Sports, and VegasInsider's Oct. 1 update had him at +275 at BetMGM.

How the Board Got Here

The preseason board was a quarterback race. DraftKings' preseason prices had Carr at +700 and Manning at +750, with Sayin at +1200 and Smith at +1400, per DraftKings Network. Manning has drifted to +3000, and Carr has moved from +700 to +1100.

The flip happened fast. Chambliss led DraftKings at +310 entering Week 4 after a win over LSU, then drifted to +1150 after Ole Miss lost 52-28 at Florida, per DraftKings Network and SI. Smith went from +1050 to +260 the same weekend. BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said, per VegasInsider: "Smith had a monster Saturday. He is the most-bet player and the biggest liability to win the award."

The Top Contenders

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+260). Smith has 33 catches for 617 yards and seven touchdowns this season, per ESPN, and ESPN's Sept. 29 betting column says he leads the country in receiving yards. His Illinois game made him only the second Buckeye, after Terry Glenn, with at least 200 receiving yards and four touchdowns in a game, per CBS Sports. He finished sixth in the 2025 Heisman voting.

Darian Mensah, Miami (+380). The Duke transfer has completed 94 of 106 passes (88.7%) for 1,211 yards, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, per ESPN. He went 23 of 27 for 338 yards and three scores in a 52-3 win over Central Michigan, per CBS Sports. His DraftKings price barely moved, from +370 to +380.

Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State (+500). Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns against No. 19 Missouri, and he has 1,192 passing yards with 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions, per ESPN. His DraftKings price shortened from +1150 to +500, per ESPN's betting column.

Jadan Baugh, Florida (+1050). Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, including 29 carries for 142 yards and three scores against Ole Miss. His previous DraftKings price was 55-1, per ESPN.

Betting Angles and Value

At +260, Smith needs better than a 27.8% chance to justify a bet. ESPN's analyst called him the best candidate in the market but not the best price. History is the hurdle: the last pure receiver to win was Alabama's DeVonta Smith in 2020, per CBS Sports.

The top three combine for about 65.3% of implied probability (27.8 plus 20.8 plus 16.7). Mensah is the quarterback alternative, with zero interceptions and a price that barely moved through Week 4. Carr is the value play CBS Sports' Matt Severance picked at +1100, arguing Notre Dame has the best chance of any team to finish the regular season unbeaten. Chambliss at +1150 is the buy-low name: ESPN noted his 342 total yards and three touchdowns at Florida and called the price playable for anyone starting fresh.

Baugh carries the most schedule risk. ESPN pointed out his next five opponents (Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma) all rank inside the top 38 in rush defense grades. For a model read on each game, see StatSniper's AI sports picks hub and the NCAAF daily picks page.

What to Watch This Weekend and Next

Five games on today's Week 5 slate involve the top contenders, per ESPN's schedule:

Alabama at Mississippi State (noon ET, ABC): Taylor hosts No. 7 Alabama, which brings another listed quarterback, Keelon Russell (+1600).

Notre Dame at North Carolina (noon ET): Carr's next test in the unbeaten-season case CBS Sports laid out.

Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Smith faces a pass defense allowing just 152.0 yards per game, per CBS Sports, with ESPN's College GameDay in Iowa City.

Florida at Missouri (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): the first of Baugh's five tougher fronts.

Miami at Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Mensah visits a 3-1 Clemson team; both sides are unbeaten in ACC play, per SI.

Chambliss and Ole Miss have a bye this week before visiting Vanderbilt on Oct. 10, per SI. For the playoff picture behind these races, see our College Football Playoff odds breakdown. Smith's full season stats are on ESPN's Jeremiah Smith player page.

Chad AI tracks college football futures and every Saturday matchup inside the StatSniper app, with model reads on Chad.

FAQ

Who is the Heisman favorite in 2026? Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is the favorite at +260 on DraftKings' Sept. 28 board, per DraftKings Network, ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at +380. FanDuel had Smith at +290 on Sept. 27.

What were the preseason Heisman odds 2026? DraftKings' preseason board had Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr at the shortest price, +700, with Texas quarterback Arch Manning at +750. Smith opened at +1400, per DraftKings Network.

Has a wide receiver won the Heisman recently? Alabama's DeVonta Smith in 2020 is the last pure receiver to win the award, per CBS Sports. Colorado's Travis Hunter won in 2024 while playing both receiver and defensive back.

When does Jeremiah Smith play next? Ohio State visits No. 14 Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 3, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

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