USMNT 2-0 Bosnia With 10 Men: First WC Knockout Win Since 2002, Belgium Next

Down to 10 men for the final half hour, the United States beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 at Levi's Stadium on Wednesday to end a 24-year wait for a World Cup knockout victory. Folarin Balogun opened the scoring right before halftime, got himself sent off in the 64th minute, and watched Malik Tillman bury the game from a free kick with eight minutes to play. It is the first USMNT knockout-stage win since the 2002 quarterfinal run and the first time the program has scored more than once in a knockout game since that same tournament.

The reward is a Round of 16 meeting with Belgium on Monday, July 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Seattle Stadium. Balogun will not be there. The rest of the group will be.

How the USMNT Got There

The opener came in first-half stoppage time and looked scripted. Tillman played a probing ball toward the top of the box, a Bosnia defender got a heavy touch on it, and the deflection dropped straight into Balogun's stride. One touch to settle, one to finish low across the goalkeeper, and the Americans went into the tunnel up a goal they only half deserved.

Bosnia had been the sharper side for stretches of the first half, moving Edin Dzeko into pockets and dragging the US center backs around. Mauricio Pochettino's 4-2-3-1 held up because Tillman kept finding the seams behind the Bosnian midfield, exactly the way yesterday's preview flagged as the swing lever. Christian Pulisic tucked in from the left, Tim Weah stretched the right, and the Balogun goal was the payoff for 40 minutes of patient work.

The Balogun Red Card

The game turned in the 64th minute. Balogun chased a bouncing ball into midfield and got there half a second late, arriving with his studs up and catching Tarik Muharemovic on the ankle and lower leg. Referee Raphael Claus of Brazil went to the VAR monitor, watched two angles, and produced the straight red for serious foul play.

There was no argument from the American bench. It was the kind of challenge that only draws a card at a World Cup because there is video to check it. Balogun walked, and the automatic one-match FIFA suspension means he sits out the Round of 16 against Belgium. We wrote the full ramifications of that suspension earlier today. The short version: Pochettino now has to pick a new number 9 for the biggest US knockout game in a generation.

The 10-Man Defensive Stand

What happened over the next 26-plus minutes is the story of the tournament for the Americans so far. Bosnia had the ball for most of it. They knocked it side to side, worked it into wide areas, and won corner after corner. What they did not get was a clear-cut chance.

The US shape shrank into a compact 4-4-1 with Pulisic pushed up alone and everyone else behind the ball. The center-back pairing stayed patient, the fullbacks refused to bite on cutbacks, and the two holders in front of the back four cut off the pockets Dzeko wanted to receive in. It was the kind of collective defending the program has not always managed under pressure. Wednesday it was disciplined, physical, and honest.

Bosnia's best look was a header from a corner that sailed high. That was the closest they came. Everything else was blocked, headed clear, or shepherded into wide dead ends.

Tillman's Free-Kick Dagger

The dagger arrived in the 82nd minute. The US won a foul about 22 yards out at a good angle for a left-footer. Tillman stood over it, aimed his run at the near post, and clipped it up and over the Bosnia wall. The goalkeeper got an outstretched glove to it, but the ball had enough dip that the deflection carried it into the side netting rather than pushing it clear.

It was the second time on the night Tillman had authored a goal, and it deserves the game ball. He is the reason the US led at halftime, and he is the reason a 10-man team went from surviving to winning. Per Outlook, it was aimed at the near post and beat the keeper's dive. On our screens it looked closer to a deflection that ended up inside the frame. Either way, it went in, and the game was over.

Historic Context

This is the first USMNT World Cup knockout win since the 2-0 result over Mexico in the Round of 16 at Korea/Japan 2002. Twenty-four years is a long time. The 2010 team went out to Ghana. The 2014 team went out to Belgium. The 2022 team went out to the Netherlands. Wednesday was the first time in a generation an American team came out of a knockout game with three points and a place in the next round.

It is also the first time the US has scored more than once in a knockout-stage game since that 2002 win over Mexico. In every knockout appearance in between, the ceiling was one goal. Wednesday they got two, and they got the second while a man down.

For Pochettino this is his first World Cup as a head coach at any level. He inherited a program with expectations that had drifted somewhere between hopeful and delusional, and he has now delivered the result the last four US managers could not.

Belgium Awaits in R16

The next assignment is the hardest. Belgium beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time earlier the same day in a game that refused to end. Diarra and Sarr put Senegal ahead. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th minute, Youri Tielemans equalized in the 89th, and Tielemans converted a penalty at 124 minutes and 44 seconds. That is the latest winning goal in World Cup history.

Belgium arrives in Seattle on short rest and with 120 minutes of extra work in their legs. The USMNT will have had five full days between kickoffs. That is a real edge and one that partly offsets the loss of Balogun. Per FOX Sports, the venue is Seattle Stadium on Monday, July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.

We previewed the Belgium-Senegal side of the bracket yesterday, and the Belgian ceiling is exactly what it looked like: a squad that can win a group and then dig out an ugly one when it has to. That is what the US just walked into.

Betting Impact

Belgium was going to be the favorite in this Round of 16 matchup regardless. Balogun's suspension nudges that line further in Belgium's direction. Sportsbooks will treat the US as clear underdogs on the moneyline and small underdogs on the draw-no-bet market. The total is likely to sit low. Belgium will be tired, the US will be conservative, and a 1-0 or 1-1 into extra time is a very live scenario.

Prop markets are where the real reshuffle happens. With Balogun out, someone else has to take the anytime scorer role that has been priced through him all tournament. Pulisic is the obvious beneficiary of the extra central touches he is going to get. Tillman just scored twice in a knockout game and is going to be priced accordingly, but the number will move even further if Pochettino pushes him higher up the field to compensate for the missing 9. Our daily soccer picks page will have the R16 board once the openers post. If you want the model's full read, that is Chad.

What to Watch Next

The macro: five days to rest, prepare, and pick a new number 9. The micro: how Pochettino replaces Balogun. Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright, and Josh Sargent are the three natural options. A false-nine look with Tillman pushed up and Pulisic tucked underneath is the more interesting one and probably the more effective one against a Belgium back line that will already be worried about the American press.

Kickoff is Monday, July 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Seattle Stadium. It is the US's first World Cup quarterfinal shot since 2002. There has not been a bigger 90 minutes for this program in a very long time.

Full match report available at ESPN.

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